How can the US-Iranian conflict be ended? Three experts offer their views

How can the US-Iranian conflict be ended? Three experts offer their views

Author, Alex Boyd

Published 4 hours ago

Reading time: 5 minutes

The prospect of an imminent agreement to once again end the conflict between the United States and Iran seems unlikely at the moment, as the two warring parties exchange blows and tough rhetoric.

These attacks come days after the United States announced that it was moving to a new phase in the conflict, represented by a comprehensive economic blockade against Iran and the countries with which it trades.

The United States' goal was to force Iran to negotiate and stop its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This major trade shipping lane has been effectively closed since the conflict between the United States and Israel began in February.

The memorandum of understanding signed by the two parties last June, which was supposed to lead to a permanent ceasefire and an agreement to end the conflict within 60 days, has expired, which has not happened yet.

As the conflict enters its seventh month, we asked three experts for their opinions on its prospects for development.

The United States hopes that military and economic pressure will weaken Iran's negotiating ability

Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., argues that the problem is that we still do not conclusively know what the US strategic goals of the war in Iran are. The White House always reassesses what it is willing to accept from a political standpoint, saying:

The military component was supposed to be sufficient to achieve a quick victory over Iran, but military force did not achieve the desired effect.

What we are currently witnessing is an American attempt to use various tools, both military and economic.

But he believes that the American administration is currently satisfied with some kind of stability. “I think it is content to continue the blockade while allowing periodic targeting of Iran’s ability to disrupt navigation in the strait.”

US officials hope that the new sanctions will be enough to force the Iranian regime to the negotiating table in a weaker position.

He explains that American forces have been able in recent days to secure the flow of sufficient quantities of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, to avoid a shock in oil prices or a global economic collapse.

But these were not the goals of the United States when the war began.

He concludes his post by saying that Iran is expected to raise the ceiling of its demands to reach a solution, which is likely to remain politically unacceptable to the Trump administration.

Iran will wait for concessions from the United States

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As for Dr. Anisa Basiri Tabrizi, a research associate in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London, she believes that the recent strikes will change Iran’s calculations regarding the war. And she says:

I believe that Tehran is preparing for more pressure on its economy, and a continuation of the sporadic attacks that we have witnessed over the past two months. As for Tehran's goal, it will be limited to a proportional response to the attacks to avoid escalation of the conflict.

She explains that from an economic standpoint, the Iranian economy may be harmed, as it was actually affected by the war and suffers from underlying structural problems, especially from the December and January demonstrations that Iran witnessed.

She added: "But I do not feel that there is a tendency on the Iranian side that economic pressure will change Iran's calculations in the near term, including any new negotiations."

She concludes her opinion by saying: “This does not mean that Iran is not looking for a way out,” but I think what we see is that it is waiting for the United States to return to the memorandum of understanding, or at least to make some kind of concessions. Tehran does not want to yield to American pressure or change its approach in response to sanctions or additional attacks against it.

The United States knows what to do - return to the ceasefire agreement

Nicholas Hopton, the former UK ambassador to Iran and now a senior researcher in international security at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London, asserts that the recent escalation of military operations will not lead to Iran's surrender, but is merely a new development. He says:

Economic pressure is unlikely to succeed, because China, Russia, and many other countries with trade relations with Iran will not support unilateral US sanctions.

Iran can continue to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz, they are tightening their stranglehold on the global economy.

He wonders: What is the White House's strategy for getting out of the situation?

He answers: Well, the United States has already found the solution. If Trump can make a sustained effort to negotiate the agreement outlined in the memorandum of understanding signed in June, that will be the way out.