Kataib Hezbollah threatens to overthrow the Zaidi government and close the ports if the Iranian air embargo continues
Quick Look
- The Hezbollah Brigades threatened to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and close the country's ports with neighboring countries if the Iranian flight ban at Iraqi airports continued, while the Iraqi government denied imposing any ban and confirmed that international companies refrained from providing services.
- In a separate context, the Syrian authorities arrested a Hezbollah cell near the occupied Golan that was planning to carry out attacks, and the United States announced limited exemptions for an Iraqi flight between Iran and Najaf Airport for religious tourism purposes only.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
These developments come in light of ongoing tensions between armed factions loyal to Iran and local governments in Iraq and Syria, after the end of the international coalition’s mission to fight ISIS in Iraq, and in light of attempts to reshape Iranian influence in the region after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in late 2024.
The Hezbollah Brigades threatened to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and close the country's ports with neighboring countries if the Iranian flight ban at Iraqi airports continued. A statement by the Iraqi faction said: “Let Al-Zaidi and those behind him know that a government that does not work for the benefit of the people will work to bring it down in various ways.” Government spokesman Haider Al-Aboudi denied that it had imposed a ban on Iranian flights, noting that “international companies have refrained from providing services at Iraqi airports.”
The US authorities issued limited exemptions for an Iraqi airline’s flight exclusively between Iran and Najaf Airport, while the Ministry of Transport announced that flights would be operated unilaterally.
The exemption stipulated that flights depart from and return to Najaf International Airport only, limited to transporting Iranian passengers for religious tourism purposes.
These developments come in conjunction with the Iraqi authorities’ announcement that today, Wednesday, is “Sovereignty Day” in the country, with the end of the mission of the international coalition to fight ISIS, led by American forces.
The positions of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, during their meetings with Congressmen Darin Lahoud and Josh Gottheimer, intersected with what was brought about by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to Washington, regarding demands to pressure Israel to stop its operations in the south and implement the agreements, in parallel with Lebanese pledges to fully implement the agreements.
Aoun stressed the importance of the American role in obligating Israel to implement the “Framework Agreement,” while Berri considered that the continuation of Israeli operations hinders the establishment of the state, stressing Washington’s ability to exert pressure.
In Washington, Salam discussed with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio the situation in the south, the future of UNIFIL and its alternative, and pressure on Israel to prevent the expansion of its security zone, in addition to resuming negotiations.
Washington is intensifying its efforts to create conditions for holding the eighth round of negotiations before the Knesset elections on October 27.
Today (Tuesday), the Syrian authorities announced that they had arrested a Hezbollah cell near the occupied Golan, which they said was “planning to carry out operations,” without providing further details, according to what was reported by Agence France-Presse.
A statement by the Internal Security Forces, broadcast by Syrian state television, said: “In a pre-emptive security operation, the General Intelligence Service, in cooperation with the Internal Security Forces, foiled a sabotage plan in the Yarmouk Basin in Daraa and arrested a cell belonging to the (Hezbollah) militia, consisting of 3 people: (F.K.), (Z.M.), and (L.A.).”
The statement continued, "The operation came as a result of careful monitoring of the cell's attempt to prepare missile launching platforms with the aim of launching attacks to destabilize security and stability. The platforms were completely dismantled while investigations continue with the detainees in preparation for their referral to the competent judiciary to receive their just punishment."
Hezbollah fought alongside the forces of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the years of the conflict that began in 2011.
Under Assad's rule, Syria was part of the "axis of resistance" led by Iran and formed a supply chain and link between Tehran and Hezbollah.
The new authorities who ousted Assad in late 2024 took a conservative stance against Iranian influence and the party.
It repeatedly announced the dismantling of cells affiliated with the Hezbollah group, which it said were planning to carry out attacks in Syria, and the seizure of arms shipments that it said were destined for it, while the party denied these accusations.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The United States will continue to grant limited exemptions to Najaf flights under strict monitoring
Likely · Within weeks
The Syrian authorities will increase detection campaigns against Hezbollah cells in southern Syria
Likely · Within weeks
American pressure on Israel to stop operations in southern Lebanon and implement the framework agreement will continue
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What guarantees do international companies offer to resume work at Iraqi airports?
- Will the United States continue to grant limited exemptions to Najaf Aviation?
- What is the fate of the three detainees in Syria after the end of the investigations?
- Will threats to overthrow the Iraqi government lead to a resignation or cabinet reshuffle?
