Breaking
CNRybakina wins the US Open women's singles title, Sun Xinran wins the junior women's singles titleCNA car hit the guardrail at the exit ramp of Suao Interchange on National Highway No. 5 and the driver fell to deathINFerry sinks off Vanuatu coast, one dead and over 30 missingKRSeoul City holds ‘Entertech·GES Seoul 2026’ at DDP… K-pop/game experience eventCNDo women have a physical and psychological advantage in ultra-endurance running?CNThe Taoyuan Shopping Festival’s first monthly car prize draw was born, and the winner only spent NT$458 to win the TOYOTA YARiS CROSSCNZhuo Guanting accused Li Sichuan's staff of secretly filming him. Li Sichuan said he wanted to say hello but was escaped.CNQiu Chenyuan questioned the poll results and said there was a huge gap between the actual public opinion and the pollsCNXunzhou's stock price fell by more than 69% in two years, and investors were waiting for relief, which resonated with netizens.CNKe Zhien paid a visit to Wang Jinping and asked him to serve as the general chairman of the competition. Wang Jinping readily accepted and praised his international talents.CNRybakina wins the US Open women's singles title, Sun Xinran wins the junior women's singles titleCNA car hit the guardrail at the exit ramp of Suao Interchange on National Highway No. 5 and the driver fell to deathINFerry sinks off Vanuatu coast, one dead and over 30 missingKRSeoul City holds ‘Entertech·GES Seoul 2026’ at DDP… K-pop/game experience eventCNDo women have a physical and psychological advantage in ultra-endurance running?CNThe Taoyuan Shopping Festival’s first monthly car prize draw was born, and the winner only spent NT$458 to win the TOYOTA YARiS CROSSCNZhuo Guanting accused Li Sichuan's staff of secretly filming him. Li Sichuan said he wanted to say hello but was escaped.CNQiu Chenyuan questioned the poll results and said there was a huge gap between the actual public opinion and the pollsCNXunzhou's stock price fell by more than 69% in two years, and investors were waiting for relief, which resonated with netizens.CNKe Zhien paid a visit to Wang Jinping and asked him to serve as the general chairman of the competition. Wang Jinping readily accepted and praised his international talents.
Newsgather
All StoriesWorldSportsFinanceTechScienceHealthCultureClimatePoliticsSpace
Back台股7、8月劇烈波動：7月外資撤離重挫，8月AI與半導體題材帶動強勢反彈
台股7、8月劇烈波動：7月外資撤離重挫，8月AI與半導體題材帶動強勢反彈
Developing
自由时报38 minutes agoBusiness3 min readChinaView translation

台股7、8月劇烈波動：7月外資撤離重挫，8月AI與半導體題材帶動強勢反彈

台股外資AI題材

Quick Look

台股在7月因外資大舉撤離而重挫，創下史上最大跌點；8月則受惠於輝達財報證實AI需求旺盛及國際半導體展題材發酵，基本面信心回溫，吸引外資回流補貨，帶動大盤報復性反彈。文章指出，高利率持續時間較長是造成市場心理壓力的主因，台股未來走勢仍需聚焦美國聯準會貨幣政策。同時，中東地緣政治風險（伊朗戰事）與台灣出口年增9-10%的基本面支撐，是影響台股的關鍵變數。作者建議投資者密切追蹤美債殖利率與成交量能，控制資金水位，分批進出並嚴守停損停利紀律。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

台股在7月因外資大舉撤離而重挫，創下史上最大跌點；8月則受惠於輝達財報證實AI需求旺盛及國際半導體展題材發酵，基本面信心回溫，吸引外資回流補貨，帶動大盤報復性反彈。文章指出，高利率持續時間較長是造成市場心理壓力的主因，台股未來走勢仍需聚焦美國聯準會貨幣政策。同時，中東地緣政治風險（伊朗戰事）與台灣出口年增9-10%的基本面支撐，是影響台股的關鍵變數。

Font size

■呂忠達

台股在7、8月間經歷一場非常劇烈的「先蹲後跳」：7月因外資大舉撤離而重挫，短短幾個禮拜內，大半之前的強勢股股價腰斬，7月17日還創下史上最大跌點；8月則在強勁基本面和AI題材帶動下強力反彈，主因是輝達財報反應AI景氣持續暢旺，以及半導體展題材，吸引外資回補。

台股7月經歷史上最大跌點 8月靠AI與半導體題材強勢反彈

請繼續往下閱讀...

台股如此跌宕起伏的原因，包括美伊軍事衝突催動國際油價走高、高利率可能持續更長時間而拖累科技股、AI泡沫化的疑慮，以及漲幅過大的評價修正等。 其中，我們認為最重要的原因，是高利率將持續更久而造成市場較大的心理壓力。因此，台股未來的走勢還是得聚焦美國聯準會的貨幣政策。華許主席將「抑制通膨」視為首要目標，強調如果通膨沒有明顯降溫，聯準會「還有工作要做」。

隨著輝達亮眼財報證實AI需求旺盛，加上國際半導體展題材發酵，市場基本面信心回溫，吸引外資回流大舉補貨，帶動大盤展開報復性反彈。（歐新社）

目前美國通膨有較大的黏性，7月核心PCE年增率仍高達3.7%，比預期為高的8月就業數據，也加大升息的可能。9月7日CME FedWatch，則顯示9月16日會議維持利率不變的概率則為41.7%，與升息預期呈現高度拉鋸，是這幾年最不確定的一場會議。

伊朗戰事牽動聯準會 台股年增9-10%出口成防護罩

通膨情勢仍視中東情勢而定，2月底開打的伊朗戰事，已進入第七個月。到目前為止打打談談，能源關鍵航道荷姆茲海峽封鎖的問題是否緩解仍有不確定性。綜合以上，聯準會貨幣政策與地緣政治風險，是9月的兩大變數。 利多因素則是台灣的基本面很不錯，出口與外銷訂單強勁，全年預估在9-10%之間。

台股迎電子傳統旺季9月箱型震盪消化賣壓 第四季蓄勢上攻

再者，AI產業長期成長趨勢不變，有利於台廠供應鏈；9月也進入電子業的傳統旺季；今年掛牌公司預估成長近7成，明年近3成。隨著最嚴峻的時間已經過去，9月判斷為箱型震盪，因前波高檔套牢賣壓沉重，需要時間消化。不過，可望迎來轉折，逐漸朝向樂觀的方向邁進。在強勁基本面的支撐下，假使國際政經局勢變數趨於穩定，有機會在第四季持續上攻。操作上，建議密切追蹤美債殖利率與成交量能的變化，控制資金水位，分批進出，嚴守停損停利紀律。

（作者為統一證券公司專業副總）

一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 台股將在9月進行箱型震盪以消化前波高檔套牢賣壓

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 在國際政經局勢變數趨於穩定且基本面支撐下，台股有機會在第四季持續上攻

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • 美國聯準會在9月會議上是否會維持利率不變或再次升息？
  • 伊朗戰事是否會導致荷姆茲海峽長期封鎖，進而影響全球油價？
  • 台灣出口動能是否能持續至第四季，以抵禦外部不確定性？

Related Topics

台股
People呂忠達華許主席
Organizations統一證券公司美國聯準會輝達
Places台灣美國伊朗荷姆茲海峽
Topics外資AI題材半導體輝達聯準會利率
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

Related Stories

Kazuo Ueda turned hawkish after the G20, prompting a sharp rise in the yen and raising the risk of long-term investment in Japanese assets.
Developing·

Kazuo Ueda turned hawkish after the G20, prompting a sharp rise in the yen and raising the risk of long-term investment in Japanese assets.

After the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda said he was more open to raising interest rates, and the market interpreted it as turning hawkish, causing the yen to rise sharply. The article points out that BOJ has made wrong decisions at critical moments in history. If it is now overly concerned about inflation and adopts radical monetary policies, it may repeat historical mistakes and increase long-term investment risks in Japanese assets.

自由时报
2 min read
Taiwan stocks fell nearly 1,000 points, and all U.S. stocks closed in the red. Legal advice: "Pull back and look for high-quality stocks, buy black rather than red."
Developing·

Taiwan stocks fell nearly 1,000 points, and all U.S. stocks closed in the red. Legal advice: "Pull back and look for high-quality stocks, buy black rather than red."

Affected by expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes, Taiwan stocks fell 366 points on the week and left a long upper shadow line of 854 points, but all U.S. stocks closed in the red. The international stock market is in a state of "red but worrying" due to war and inflationary pressure. Taiwan stock market is still the only market among the major stock markets in the United States, Europe and Asia to hold on to the monthly, quarterly, half-year and annual lines. The legal person recommends that investors use the operation of "pull back to find high-quality stocks, buy black but not red" and continue to invest in high-quality ETFs in fixed amounts on a regular basis.

自由时报
2 min read
The underwriting price of Hante's listing on the OTC market is NT$2,250, setting a record for the highest IPO price in Taiwan.
Developing·

The underwriting price of Hante's listing on the OTC market is NT$2,250, setting a record for the highest IPO price in Taiwan.

Hante (7856) is expected to be transferred from the IPO to the OTC on September 22. The public subscription period is from September 10 to 14. The underwriting price is tentatively set at 2,250 yuan per share, setting a record for the highest IPO price in the history of Taiwanese stocks. The subscription document requires a capital of 2.25 million yuan, triggering investors to discuss whether it is cost-effective to borrow money to pledge stocks to participate in the lottery. The focus of the controversy lies in the winning rate, interest costs and potential spread profits.

自由时报
2 min read
Taiwan stocks fluctuate at high levels, with bullish fundamentals and a reversal from the recession
Developing·

Taiwan stocks fluctuate at high levels, with bullish fundamentals and a reversal from the recession

The recent retracement of Taiwan stocks is mainly due to the revision of valuations and profit-taking, rather than a reversal of the economy. Exports hit a monthly high of US$82.4 billion in August, and TSMC's revenue exceeded 500 billion yuan. Experts suggest that the AI ​​and semiconductor industry chain should be deployed in batches every time, and future changes in U.S. debt, oil prices and AI capital expenditures need to be paid attention to.

自由时报
2 min read
Senior anchor Zhou Yuqin was shocked to be fired. Former colleague Liu Xintong pointed out that seniority and high salary were the key factors for layoffs.
Developing·

Senior anchor Zhou Yuqin was shocked to be fired. Former colleague Liu Xintong pointed out that seniority and high salary were the key factors for layoffs.

Senior Zhongtian TV anchor Zhou Yuqin was laid off after 30 years in the industry. Former colleague Liu Xintong revealed that most of the layoffs were senior, experienced and higher-paid employees. He believed that the AI ​​wave was changing the landscape of the media industry and called on professionals to remain open and continue to learn to cope with future uncertainties.

自由时报
3 min read
More on this topic台股