Investment Bank said that the Taiwan stock market is likely to remain volatile in October, and there is no need to be pessimistic in the long term. It is expected that the performance of individual stocks from October to November will be better than the performance of the broader market. (File photo)
[Reporter Wang Menglun/Taipei Report] According to the latest statistics, as of October 9 this year, Taiwan's stock market has risen by 70.26%, ranking "the fourth largest increase in global stock markets" and "the largest increase in Asian stock markets." Looking forward to the market outlook, Investment Letter said that the Taiwan stock market rebounded by more than 4,000 points. After the bullish gains, chips must be settled and the willingness to pursue prices may weaken. It is expected that the shock pattern will remain in October to November; however, the AI trend has not changed. "A healthy bullish pullback will help the long-term performance of Taiwan stocks."
Since the beginning of this year, Taiwanese stocks and Asian stocks have performed strongly. According to statistics from investment institutions, the top four international stock markets have risen since the beginning of this year, in order: "Venezuela" has risen by 160.52%, ranking first in the world; "Philadelphia Semiconductor" has risen by 77.50%, ranking second; "Peru Stock Market" has risen by 71.44% this year, ranking third; as for "Taiwan Weighted", it has risen by 70.26% this year, temporarily ranking fourth in the world.
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Investment industry players said that as the "Taiwan stock market" continues to gain momentum this year, there is a great chance that it can surpass the "Peru stock market" and become the third largest gainer in the world this year, and its ranking will continue to rise. As for the fifth and sixth global growth rankings, "Korea" rose by 57.23% and "Nikkei 225" rose by 37.13% respectively. Since there is still some distance to lead, the ranking of this year's growth will not change yet.
If the comparison time is shortened, since October, the growth performance of international stock markets has been "Brazilian stock market" 12.20%, "Nikkei 225" 3.41%, and "Taiwan weighted" 2.86%. In other words, Taiwan stocks are still "among the best" in the global stock market, far ahead of other countries, and have the "third strongest increase in the world" since October.
Taishin Investment Trust said that as the Taiwan stock market rebounded by more than 4,000 points, the financing balance approached the previous wave high and returned to more than 630 billion yuan. After the increase, chips must be settled, and the willingness to chase prices may weaken. Therefore, it is expected that the volatile pattern will remain from October to November.
Shen Jianhong, manager of Taishin Taiwan Small and Medium-sized Active ETF Fund (00416A), said that Brent crude oil futures once stood at US$100 per barrel, and U.S. long-term Treasury bond yields also hit a 24-year high, the Federal Reserve The minutes of the (Fed) meeting showed that most officials expected to raise interest rates again this year, which impacted the decline of U.S. stocks. In addition, profit-taking selling pressure increased after the short-term surge in Taiwan stocks, approaching the 50,000-point mark. "Hometown sentiment" continued to fluctuate before 50,000 points.
Shen Jianhong pointed out that there are four variables that the market will pay attention to in the future. The first is that the U.S. midterm election polls continue to be unfavorable to the Republican Party. Will the United States and Iran reach a peace agreement? Still unknown. Secondly, the U.S. 10-year bond yield has reached over 5%, which is unfavorable to the evaluation of technology stocks. Will the continued rise in yields trigger shocks in the stock and bond markets?
Third, the outlook for corporate financial reports and legal statements after mid-October; fourth, the total amount of US$130 billion in the construction of AI data centers in states across the United States in the first quarter, and still reached US$98 billion in the second quarter. ASIC and GPU new platform chip shipments in the second and third quarters, it is expected that AI supply chain inventories may continue to rise in October.
In this regard, Taishin Investment Trust said that in the long term, the market's forecast for the annual growth rate of corporate profits from 2026 to 2027 will continue to grow, and the AI trend has not changed. "A healthy pullback from gains will be more conducive to the long-term performance of Taiwan stocks." Therefore, there is no need to be pessimistic in the long term. It is expected that individual stock performance will be better than the broader market performance in October to November, and we should pay attention to new themes and rising prices.
In terms of stock operations, we are optimistic about AI supply chain benefits such as material upgrades, power innovations, new designs, etc.; optical communication supply chain; key components; semiconductor upstream materials and equipment; stocks benefiting from the establishment of factories in the United States; price-increasing groups such as passive components, power ICs, silicon wafers; high dividend yield groups, etc.
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