"The rise of the People's Republic of China is based on hard work, intelligence and ambition, and equally crucial is the opportunity to enter the global market guaranteed by the U.S.-led world order. If China challenges this order, it will face huge risks." The Neue Zürcher Zeitung guest commentary article clearly stated this argument at the beginning.
The authors of the article - Enrico Fardella, professor at the University of Naples L’Orientale and Sergey Radchenko, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Radchenko pointed out that China's official media is creating the impression that China has surpassed its competitors. This narrative is supported by a specific view of modern history, that is, the Soviet Union failed to implement socialism and the United States was unable to effectively control capitalism. Only China has successfully achieved the harmonious unity of state power and market vitality. However, this nationalist narrative conceals a fundamental historical fact: China’s rise relies on the very system established by its competitors.
The two professors wrote in their comments: "Surprisingly, Beijing does not seem to realize that its continued success depends to a large extent on the international order shaped and maintained by Washington. Currently, China is working to establish its dominant position in many key global industries and supply chains. In the process of pursuing industrial hegemony, China's recent behavior has become increasingly unscrupulous, and it has become more and more unscrupulous towards Europe. U.S. complaints have fallen on deaf ears. Beijing has neither acknowledged nor addressed the overcapacity problem, which has led its trading partners, especially major Western economies, to turn against China's trade practices. Growing dissatisfaction with China has prompted the United States and Europe to adopt harsh countermeasures to protect their industries. The long-term consequences may be very different from what China's leadership expected. "
The article goes on to analyze the reasons why Chinese leaders both take advantage of the liberal international order and challenge this order:
“Since the 1990s, even as Beijing has deepened its integration with the global economy, China’s leadership has increasingly viewed U.S. hegemony as the greatest long-term obstacle to achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. They worry that continued engagement with the West could fuel political liberalization and ultimately undermine the Chinese Communist Party’s commitment to Monopoly of power. As a result, Beijing has adopted a dual strategy: both exploiting the openness of the existing order and setting out to build alternatives aimed at weakening that order. Under Xi Jinping, this trend is increasingly evident in that Beijing is trying to shift the center of gravity of the global economy away from established institutions created by the United States. One Belt, One Road' initiative."
However, the two authors of the article believe that there is a fundamental problem at the core of this glorious narrative: "Unlike the Soviet Union, China has never established a comprehensive alternative order that can replace the various international systems dominated by the United States. Instead, China has taken advantage of the openness of the existing order and gradually challenged its rules and systems from within. China's rise has largely benefited from various mechanisms that have given it access to technology, expertise, and ultimately markets. Therefore, the more China weakens the liberal order that contributed to its rise, the more likely it is that it will shake the foundation of its own prosperity."
The authors conclude by noting that if China continues on its current path, resistance to its industrial hegemony will intensify. The article said that China has repeatedly promised to boost domestic demand to appease foreign governments and investors, but these adjustments are far from solving the fundamental problem. China still emphasizes production over consumption. “The most pressing challenge facing China’s leadership, therefore, may not be to surpass the West. The top priority is to proactively reorient the country’s economy before the world forces it to change.”
Oil market savior
The "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" article titled "The behind-the-scenes savior of the oil market" analyzed the reasons behind the fact that the Strait of Hormuz has been almost closed for months, but there has been no global oil panic.
The article begins: "If March's predictions come true, the world would now be mired in one of the worst oil crises in history. At the time, oil traders warned that oil prices would soar to $200 a barrel or more. The consequences would include widespread famine across the globe, vehicle bans on Sundays and possibly Saturdays, and conflicts over every drop of oil."
"However, although the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the conflict with Iran is difficult to resolve in the short term, there is no global oil panic. Oil prices, although uncomfortable, remain between $80 and $90 per barrel. The global economy is faltering, but it is not stagnant."
So, who saved the global economy? The article believes that in addition to the two reasons of the gradual release of about 400 million barrels of oil reserves by the International Energy Agency member countries since March and the decline in global demand, China is increasingly becoming the savior of the global economy. Citing a series of data, the article pointed out, "As the world's largest oil importer by far, China has significantly reduced its oil imports, and the magnitude has amazed oil analysts."
The article quoted a recent analysis by the British "Economist" magazine and pointed out: "China, not OPEC, has now become the global oil power. Wei Hongcen, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said that China is playing the role of 'buffer for global energy prices.' If this analysis is correct, China will not only suddenly dominate renewable energy, but also have considerable influence on the most important traditional energy field."
Analysts believe that much of the decline in China's imports is made up by previously stored oil, with the rest attributed to reduced consumption, such as the increasing share of electric vehicles in the total vehicle fleet and restrictions on the export of refined oil products such as kerosene.
The article also noted an interesting phenomenon, "What is intriguing about this situation is that Beijing has not promoted itself as a 'savior,' nor has it made any comments on the oil mystery."
As for why Chinese leaders, who have always advertised themselves as a "responsible power," are so low-key this time, the article said, "Guo Shan, a partner at the Chinese consulting firm Hutong Research, told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: 'I think Beijing itself is surprised now. Relevant decision-makers have not thought so far before. Beijing is seeing with its own eyes how much influence it has on the global oil market.'"
