US President Donald Trump threatened to launch an “economic war” and isolate Iran on an unprecedented scale, warning any country that provides Tehran with a financial or commercial outlet of economic consequences, in a move that exposes its most prominent partners to the possibility of being exposed to new American pressure.
The Iranian trade network is distributed between China, the largest trading partner and buyer of Iranian oil, and the neighboring countries on which Tehran depends for import, export, energy and re-export, in addition to Russia, India and a number of European and Asian markets.
Thus, the scope of countries exposed to the repercussions of the American threat from China extends to a wide network of neighboring countries and Asian and European markets that are linked to Tehran with varying degrees of trade, energy, and financial transfers.
China...the largest partner
China is Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for more than a quarter of its foreign trade. According to World Trade Organization data, China's imports from Iran amounted to $14.5 billion in 2024, compared to Chinese exports to it worth $18 billion, bringing total exchanges to about $32.5 billion.
Hydrocarbons and chemical compounds, including industrial alcohols and plastics, constituted the largest portion of Iranian exports to China, while Iran purchased Chinese industrial machinery, electronic equipment, cars, and metals.
Oil trade stands out as the most exposed to American pressure. More than 80 percent of Iranian oil shipments are headed to China, while Kpler estimated its average purchases during 2025 at about 1.38 million barrels per day.
Over the past decade, a network of independent refineries that process Iranian oil has formed in China and does not have significant exposure to the United States. Sources in the sector said that Iranian oil shipments have been marketed for years as Malaysian, and more recently Indonesian, oil, and are sold through multiple intermediaries and paid for in Chinese currency.
In April, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on an independent Chinese refinery for purchasing billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil, and warned Chinese banks of secondary sanctions if they facilitated that trade.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “Sanctions and pressure will not solve the problem,” calling on the parties to take responsible measures and settle the issue through political and diplomatic means.
Russia... trade expands across the Caspian Sea
Russian imports from Iran amounted to $930 million during the last ten months of 2025, compared to Russian exports to Iran worth $1.36 billion, putting total trade during the period at about $2.29 billion.
In 2022, Russian-Iranian exchanges included the exchange of grain, gold, and timber for Iranian agricultural products.
Cooperation later expanded, and The Telegraph newspaper reported the emergence of a new route for bilateral trade through the Caspian Sea. In July, Ukraine fired on ships it said were carrying military cargo linked to Iran in the Caspian Sea, sparking a protest from Tehran.
Neighborhood
The UAE leads neighboring countries in terms of the volume of trade with Iran. According to the World Trade Organization, the UAE will provide 30 percent of Iran’s imports in 2024, worth about $21 billion, and at the same time constitute 13 percent of Iranian exports.
Emirati data show that non-oil foreign trade between the two countries amounted to $6.6 billion in 2024, most of which was from re-exports.
As for Iranian customs data for the ten months prior to January 2026, it shows Iranian exports to the UAE worth $6.4 billion, compared to imports from the UAE amounting to $14.81 billion, meaning a total of about $21.21 billion during that period.
Dubai banks have historically held large deposits linked to Iran, a large portion of which was frozen under US sanctions.
But this week, the UAE announced the suspension of all activities, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, after a military escalation that it said included an Iranian missile threat.
Türkiye comes next among the neighboring countries. According to Iranian customs data, Iran imported Turkish goods worth $5.6 billion during the last ten months of 2025, while its exports to Türkiye amounted to $7.91 billion, the most prominent of which were hydrocarbon products.
Other data indicate that the volume of bilateral trade is about five to six billion dollars annually, and that Turkish exports to Iran are approximately three billion dollars.
Türkiye imports almost all of its natural gas needs, and Iran provides 13 percent of its total gas imports.
Iraq's trade with Iran exceeded $10 billion in 2025, according to official Iraqi trade figures, and depends mainly on exports of food, consumer goods, and Iranian products to the Iraqi market.
Iranian customs data for the last ten months of 2025 show exports to Iraq worth $7.91 billion, compared to Iranian imports from it worth about $450 million.
Gas is an essential aspect of the relationship. Iraqi officials said that Baghdad pays Tehran between four and five billion dollars annually for natural gas used to generate electricity.
But trade declined during 2026 after the outbreak of war, with rising security risks, disruption of some crossings, increased transportation costs, and disruptions to supply chains. Iraqi officials warned that additional US sanctions could make it more difficult to pay Iranian energy dues, in light of the use of restricted accounts to settle payments.
As for Pakistan, informal trade between it and Iran is estimated at about four billion dollars, while the two countries pledged to raise bilateral trade to 10 billion dollars.
Formal trade had largely stopped due to previous sanctions, but oil, wheat, rice, livestock and medicine continued to pass through unofficial channels. After the signing of the Islamabad Interim Agreement in June, attempts began to expand trade cooperation.
Total merchandise trade between Oman and Iran reached $1.5 billion in 2025, according to the Omani National Center for Statistics and Information, and reached $345 million during the first four months of 2026.
As for Armenia's trade with Iran, it reached $768 million in 2025, equivalent to 3.6 percent of its total foreign trade.
In the first half of 2026, their trade volume reached $371.4 million, an increase of 8.4 percent. Armenian exports to Iran recorded $42.8 million, a six percent decrease, while imports from Iran amounted to $336.9 million, an increase of 12 percent.
About 20 percent of Armenia's foreign trade passes through Iran. The two countries are also bound by a “gas-for-electricity” agreement, under which Armenia obtains Iranian gas to generate electricity, part of which is returned to Iran.
Azerbaijan's trade with Iran reached $312.6 million during the first half of 2026, an increase of 4.5 percent compared to $299.1 million in the same period of 2025.
Azerbaijan's imports from Iran increased by 1.5 percent, from $292.7 million to $297 million, while its exports to Iran jumped by about 2.4 times, from $6.4 million to $15.6 million.
Iran represented 3.56 percent of Azerbaijan's total imports, compared to 2.54 percent in the first half of 2025.
India and other markets
India's trade with Iran has declined sharply since the tightening of US sanctions. It fell from $17 billion in the 2018-2019 fiscal year to about $4.8 billion in 2019-2020.
Trade amounted to $1.7 billion in 2024-2025, according to Indian data reported by Agence France-Presse, while data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce show a figure of $1.63 billion in the fiscal year 2025-2026.
Indian exports, amounting to about $1.3 billion, constitute most of the trade, and include especially grains, tea, coffee and spices. New Delhi says these exports are of a humanitarian nature and should not be subject to sanctions.
India also imported about 276,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil in mid-April, according to Kpler, at a time when it has sought to diversify its energy sources since the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Germany's exports to Iran amounted to about one billion dollars between January and November 2025, while German imports from them amounted to about 253 million dollars.
Japan exported goods worth $89 million to Iran in 2024, an increase of 38 percent, while its imports from it decreased by 6.4 percent to $29 million. Japanese exports included medicines, cars, and electrical machinery, while imports focused on textiles and foodstuffs.
Sri Lanka's exports to Iran reached $68 million in 2024, up from $43 million the previous year, while official imports have stopped since the imposition of US sanctions on Iranian oil.
As for the Philippines, it exported goods to Iran worth $66 million in 2024, compared to $38 million in the previous year, while its imports from Iran remained below $190,000.
