
AI-generated summary
Taiwan stocks encountered multiple negative effects during the holiday: the U.S. stock index fell 3.7%, TSMC ADR plummeted 4%, the Taiwan stock index futures plummeted 652 points in overnight trading, the United States launched a Section 337 investigation that affected Taiwan's technology factories, and Trump stated that he would not rule out the use of force against Iran.
[Reporter Zhang Huiwen/Report from Taipei] During the Taiwan stock market holiday, bad news continued one after another. U.S. stock prices fell sharply, and Taiwan index futures fell sharply in the night session. Many legal persons predicted that Monday (12th) would open lower and Taiwan stocks would inevitably fall by a thousand points. Many retail investors lamented that " "It's over" and "wait and see"; however, the legal person believes that the current pressure can be regarded as a retracement test support after breaking through the pressure zone. As long as it does not fall below, it will still be beneficial to the continuation of the short-term bull trend. At the same time, TSMC's 15th French report will be an important observation indicator.
Let’s take a closer look at the Taiwan stock market during the Double Ten holiday. It happened to avoid several major bad news. First, the U.S. stock index fell 3.7%, and TSMC ADR also fell 4%. Second, the Taiwan stock index futures plunged 652 points in night trading on the 8th, closing at 48,705 points. The maximum intraday drop was 944 points. Thirdly, the US launched the Section 337 investigation, which affected Taiwanese technology factories. Quanta (2382), Hon Hai (2317), and TSMC (2330) all won the bid. Fourthly, US President Trump suddenly changed his attitude and stated that he "does not rule out the use of force against Iran" before the midterm elections.
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Faced with the concerns of many investors, the legal person believes that if it falls back on Monday, it can be regarded as a retracement test support after breaking through the pressure zone. As long as it does not fall below, it will still be beneficial to the continuation of the short-term bullish trend. If it slows down, the quarterly line may also become a support. Although it may fluctuate before the end of the year, the overall view is still bullish, and it is more likely to stand above 50,000 points. The legal person also pointed out that the TSMC legal meeting will be held on the 15th and will be an important observation indicator for the market.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Taiwan stocks will open lower on Monday but not fall below key support
Likely · Within hours
TSMC’s statement on the 15th will become an important observation indicator for the market
Very likely · Within days

The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by only 29,000 in September, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, indicating a cooling of the labor market. This data has reduced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October, but inflation is still above the target, so suspense about raising interest rates before the end of the year still exists. Market focus has turned to follow-up inflation data to determine the direction of policy.

The Taiwan Circuit Board Association will hold the 27th TPCA Show at Hall 1 of Nangang Exhibition Hall from October 20 to 22. The scale of the exhibition has reached a record high, bringing together more than 680 international brands and more than 1,840 booths. It is expected to attract 70,000 professional buyers from around the world. Focusing on the AI × PCB × advanced packaging industry chain, industry leaders such as Xinxing, Zhending, and Zhisheng will give speeches to discuss industrial transformation and layout in the AI era.

Investment institutions pointed out that Taiwan's stock market has increased by 70.26% this year, ranking fourth in the world and first in Asia. Although in the short term due to the accumulation of chips and the weakening willingness to chase prices, it is expected that the trend of AI will remain volatile from October to November. However, the trend of AI has not changed. There is no need to be pessimistic in the long term. Individual stocks are expected to perform better than the market. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities such as AI supply chains and high-dividend groups.

Benefiting from the expansion of demand for infrastructure such as AI servers, high-speed network communications and memory, Taiwan's copper foil substrate manufacturers have benefited from strong demand for high-multilayer boards and low-loss PCB boards, and the market has seen both volume and price growth. Taiwan Optoelectronics has earned more than one equity share each quarter for six consecutive quarters. In the first half of the year, EPS reached 42.46 yuan. Revenue in the first nine months increased by 103.69% year-on-year. Taiyao, Lianmao, and Tenghui-KY all achieved new highs in revenue, and the price increase of copper foil substrates is expected to continue until 2027.

Affected by the rising prices of memory and other components, the prices of consumer electronic products have increased, with notebook computers seeing the largest increase, followed by mobile phones and tablets. Chen Qimeng, general manager of Samsung Electronics' mobile communications division, pointed out that the AI trend has pushed up memory demand. It is expected that demand will still be hot before the end of next year, and the pressure for price increases in the electronics consumer market will continue. Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series has increased by about 5,000 yuan, and the previous generation iPhone 17 series has also bucked the trend and increased prices instead of reducing prices. PC and NB products have increased by more than 30% as of the third quarter, and the increase is expected to continue until 2027.

The Fraser Institute of Canada released the 2026 World Economic Freedom Report. Hong Kong has been rated as the freest economy in the world for the third consecutive year. It has performed well in the dimensions of international trade freedom and monetary policy, attracting more than 11,000 parent companies to set up companies in Hong Kong. It has created a good business environment with equal emphasis on openness and supervision. The SAR government has attracted enterprises to settle in by introducing key enterprise offices and Invest Promotion Agency, and consolidated its advantages by improving property rights protection and public governance. The first five-year plan is aligned with the country's 15th Five-Year Plan to promote the construction of the northern metropolitan area.