
台股休假期間美股費半大跌、台指期夜盤重挫、美發動337調查及川普言論等利空湧現,散戶擔心周一開低走低跌千點,但法人認為壓回為突破後回檔測試支撐,只要不跌破仍利多頭趨勢,台積電15日法說將為重要觀察指標。
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台股休假期間遭遇多重利空:美股費半指數大跌3.7%、台積電ADR重挫4%、台指期夜盤狂跌652點、美發動337調查波及台科技廠、川普表示不排除對伊朗動武。
〔記者張慧雯/台北報導〕台股休假期間壞消息連連,美股費半大跌、台指期夜盤重挫,不少法人預測周一(12日)恐開低走低、台股難逃下跌千點的命運,不少散戶哀嘆「完了」、「剉著等」;但法人認為,現在的壓回可視為突破壓力區後的回檔測試支撐,只要沒跌破,都還是有利短線多頭趨勢延續,同時,台積電15日法說將是重要觀察指標。
細數台股雙十連假期間,正好躲過幾大利空消息,第一,美股費半指數大跌3.7%、台積電ADR也重挫4%,第二,台指期夜盤8日狂跌652點,收在4萬8705點,盤中最多大跌944點,第三,美發動337調查波及台灣科技廠,廣達(2382)、鴻海(2317)、台積電(2330)都中標,第四,美國總統川普突然轉變態度,表示期中選舉前「不排除對伊朗動武」。
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面對不少投資人擔心,法人認為,周一若壓回可以視為突破壓力區後的回檔測試支撐,只要沒跌破,都還是有利短線多頭趨勢延續,若走緩跌的話,季線也有機會變成支撐,年底前雖可能震盪整理,不過整體看起來仍是多頭,更有機會站穩5萬點之上;法人也指出,台積電法說會將於15日舉行,將是市場重要觀察指標。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
台股周一將開低走低但不跌破關鍵支撐
Likely · Within hours
台積電15日法說將成為市場重要觀察指標
Very likely · Within days

Hong Kong will host the Apec finance ministers' meeting on October 20-21 at the Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai, marking the first time the city hosts the event. Finance Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the meeting will focus on fiscal policies supporting livelihoods, digital infrastructure financing, inclusive finance and young financial talent, highlighting Hong Kong's role as an international financial centre and reflecting central government's support for the city. About 500 guests, including finance ministers and senior officials from Apec's 21 member economies, are expected to attend.

Taiwan stocks have risen strongly recently, approaching the 50,000-point mark, mainly due to lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data, dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, lowering expectations for another FOMC interest rate hike at the end of October, coupled with the strong growth momentum of the AI industry and the early return of funds to risky assets. The article pointed out that although the short-term may be volatile, the mid- to long-term trend is still positive, and it is recommended that investors deploy AI computing power and semiconductor supply chain-related groups in batches.

U.S. retail sales increased by 1.2% monthly in August, showing solid consumption momentum; the job market cooled down in September after a strong rebound in August, with only 29,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Driven by rising gasoline prices, CPI increased by 0.4% in August. AI chip power consumption is rising rapidly, and the power consumption of a single cabinet may exceed 1 million watts, driving demand for liquid cooling. Supervision upgrades have promoted computing power protection, and data center power supply has become a new test. Taiwan stocks focus on the three main lines of hardware, software and non-AI, and it is recommended to keep cash and wait for a pullback.

The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by only 29,000 in September, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, indicating a cooling of the labor market. This data has reduced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October, but inflation is still above the target, so suspense about raising interest rates before the end of the year still exists. Market focus has turned to follow-up inflation data to determine the direction of policy.

The Taiwan Circuit Board Association will hold the 27th TPCA Show at Hall 1 of Nangang Exhibition Hall from October 20 to 22. The scale of the exhibition has reached a record high, bringing together more than 680 international brands and more than 1,840 booths. It is expected to attract 70,000 professional buyers from around the world. Focusing on the AI × PCB × advanced packaging industry chain, industry leaders such as Xinxing, Zhending, and Zhisheng will give speeches to discuss industrial transformation and layout in the AI era.

Investment institutions pointed out that Taiwan's stock market has increased by 70.26% this year, ranking fourth in the world and first in Asia. Although in the short term due to the accumulation of chips and the weakening willingness to chase prices, it is expected that the trend of AI will remain volatile from October to November. However, the trend of AI has not changed. There is no need to be pessimistic in the long term. Individual stocks are expected to perform better than the market. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities such as AI supply chains and high-dividend groups.