Washington is testing its bet on Putin...and Europe fears the price of peace

Washington enters the Abu Dhabi talks with cautious optimism that goes beyond betting on resuming negotiations to testing the policy of rapprochement with Moscow. Is it betting on the possibility that American incentives will succeed in pushing President Vladimir Putin towards a settlement, and not just give him gains without changing his terms? While the White House seeks to turn returning to the table into political progress, the Europeans fear that the negotiations will expand from ending the war to rearranging the continent’s security, while they are outside the main dialogue hall.

Representatives of the United States and European parties announced in a joint statement on Tuesday their commitment to a strong post-war European security architecture, stressing that any agreement should guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity. The statement issued by the representatives of the United States, Ukraine, and the European parties said: “The participants affirmed their shared commitment to a strong post-war European security structure and arrangements, and were clear that a strong NATO will remain essential for the common Euro-Atlantic defense.”

The Axios website quoted American officials as saying that they see an opportunity to reduce differences, after extensive contacts conducted by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with both parties, but optimism clashes with the continuation of Russian attacks and Putin’s refusal to cease fire, in addition to an unresolved gap regarding territory. Which makes testing intentions the closest goal of the round before talking about a breakthrough.

A US official said earlier, on Monday, that Russia and Ukraine were privately showing a degree of flexibility regarding the possibility of exchanging territories before the Abu Dhabi talks.

For his part, US President Donald Trump pre-empted the tour by confirming that the Ukraine war would end soon. Trump said: “I believe we will be able to end the war, and I believe that will happen, and that Ukraine will end up with somewhat different geographical borders.” He added that the biggest obstacle to achieving peace is the “intense hatred” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and added: “I believe that this war will end, and it will end soon.” The only reason it ended is because of me.” Kushner called for developing a new security framework for Ukraine, Russia, and Europe to ensure peace. Kushner said: “I hope that today will not be limited to discussing bilateral issues between the two countries and how to put an end to the war, but also how we can establish correct security relations between Ukraine, Russia and Europe in order to establish a new framework, and not just end the war,” to ensure “decades, if not centuries, of peace.”

The head of the Ukrainian delegation and head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustam Omerov, announced that the goal of this new round of talks is to reach a lasting peace.

Omerov explained that “our main priorities are to stop hostilities, provide reliable security guarantees for the post-war period, achieve economic recovery and development in Ukraine, and take humanitarian measures,” noting that the goal is to achieve progress in these files, and bring the chances of reaching peace closer.

The American approach is based on the assumption that improving the relationship with the Kremlin opens a door that pressure alone could not open. The website reports that Trump and his team hope for greater Russian willingness to concede, after Washington lifted sanctions on Russian diesel sales and took other steps that Moscow welcomed. An American official told the website that the relations built with Putin will be a key factor in the negotiations.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the agreement under which Moscow supplies diesel to the American and global markets has already begun to bear fruit, and has led to lower prices. Lavrov added in an article published on Tuesday in the Russian Kommersant newspaper that Moscow differs from the West in that it does not use its economy to achieve political gains in the face of countries it considers adversaries or competitors.

However, the resumption of dialogue does not in itself prove the validity of this bet. There is a big difference between convincing Moscow to participate, and convincing it to abandon demands that it considers to be the basis for a settlement. Hence, the round becomes a test of Washington's ability to transform rapprochement into measurable concessions, after it provided economic and political incentives before reaching an agreement.

Over the past two weeks, Witkopf and Kushner have had daily contacts, sometimes repeatedly on the same day, with Russian and Ukrainian officials, according to the website. American officials say that the two sides have secretly shown some flexibility regarding the territories, in contrast to their public rigidity, but they have not revealed its content. What keeps it as an American estimate needs to be tested in negotiations.

The immediate goal of the envoys is to determine the difficult decisions that Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky must make. After Abu Dhabi, they may head to Moscow and Kiev, which suggests that the tour aims to prepare options for the two leaderships, more than it promises to produce a final settlement immediately. This also explains the keenness of officials to combine the language of opportunity with reservations about the size of the possible results.

At the core of American calculations is an interconnection between security guarantees and regional concessions. According to Axios, officials do not expect an agreement on the territories before reaching security guarantees, while Moscow clings to the entire Donbass, and Kiev wants to rely on the current front lines.

This approach reflects a fundamental Ukrainian dilemma, and poses a challenge: How can a regional settlement be accepted without ensuring that the truce does not turn into an opportunity for Russia to rebuild its forces and resume the war? Therefore, it is not enough to draw a line of separation. Rather, it is necessary to determine who monitors it, how violations are monitored, and what happens if the agreement collapses.

Washington is betting on building on the progress achieved by the military track in the February round regarding monitoring the ceasefire and security arrangements, in contrast to the stagnation of the political track at that time. But technical progress does not resolve the dispute over obligations. The monitoring mechanism can document the violation, while deterring it requires will, capabilities, and guarantees that the Ukrainian party trusts.

Kiev's priorities may provide scope for narrower outcomes: calming the Black Sea, facilitating grain exports, and stopping targeting Ukrainian energy facilities and Russian refineries before winter. Such understandings, if achieved and implemented, allow for testing mutual commitment, without considering them an alternative to addressing the essence of the conflict. They may also give negotiators a practical basis to justify the continuation of the dialogue if the regional dispute remains intractable.

On the other hand, the Trump administration wants to go beyond Ukraine, by opening a third path between Europe and Russia to reduce tension and prevent conflicts. However, Washington’s reading differs from that of its allies, as while it wants to provide an element that will help end the war, European countries fear that the Russian narrative that portrays the continent as a threat to Moscow’s security, and will lead to the weakening of the NATO alliance. American officials confirm, according to Axios, that the initiative will not replace NATO or diminish its role. However, this reassurance alone does not answer the Europeans’ question: Will they participate in formulating the arrangements that affect their security, or will they be asked to support understandings that were developed before they joined?

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday: “Any serious discussions about Europe’s security architecture can only be held after a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine.” She added: “These discussions must take place within an appropriate framework, with the participation of NATO allies and European Union member states in particular.”

Although inviting European and Atlantic officials to side consultations in Abu Dhabi reduces the coordination gap, it does not equal participation in the negotiation. The two American envoys hope that Moscow will agree to a European presence in the next round, a hope that reveals that the issue of representation itself is still unresolved.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Tuesday that the Europeans will attend the Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi, and that no discussions can be held with Russia about European security before reaching a ceasefire agreement and establishing peace. “Britain, Germany and France will already be in the meeting room,” Barrow told France Info radio.

Omerov said, via the Telegram application: “The first meeting was held in the presence of representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, and the European Commission.” Omeroff added that the meeting also witnessed the presence of Witkoff and Kushner.

On Tuesday, a new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine was launched in Abu Dhabi, under American sponsorship, and under direct pressure from President Donald Trump to achieve tangible progress. The talks are taking place behind closed doors, amid information about the focus of the discussion on the land issues and European guarantees to the various parties. With the Russian refusal to participate with European countries in the discussions, the presence of European representatives outside the negotiating hall reflected a keenness to continue coordinating positions with Kiev and to support the Ukrainian negotiators during this round.

It seemed that American pressure on the Russian and Ukrainian parties culminated in the holding of the round of negotiations without reaching agreements on a temporary truce to facilitate political progress in accordance with the Ukrainian-European condition earlier.

The Russian official Novosti news agency reported that at the beginning of the talks, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, expressed his hope that the round would lead to progress towards a peace settlement.

While US presidential envoy Jared Kushner expressed hope that the parties would discuss not only ending the conflict, but also the future security structure in Europe.

In addition to Medinsky, Russia is represented by Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, Head of the FSB's Operational Information and International Relations Service Alexei Komkov, and Head of the General Directorate of the General Staff Igor Kostyukov.

The Ukrainian delegation is headed by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustam Omerov, and includes the head of the Presidential Office, Kirill Budanov, his deputy, Sergei Kyslytsya, the head of the “Servant of the People” bloc in Parliament, David Arakhamiya, the deputy head of the General Directorate of Intelligence in the Ministry of Defense, Vadim Skibitsky, and the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andrei Gnatov.

Participating from the American side, alongside Kushner, is the special envoy of President Donald Trump, Donald Steve Witkoff, and the Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Europe, Alexus Grinkevich.

The parties held the last tripartite round in this format in early February, and Washington put strong pressure on the Russian and Ukrainian parties to resume the dialogue rounds after the mutual field escalation escalated over the past months.

The Kremlin preceded the round by confirming its position on rejecting the Europeans' participation, and Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that his country prefers to discuss the issues raised behind closed doors and away from public discussions in the media.

Peskov said on Monday that the talks will be held with the participation of the delegations of Russia and Ukraine and with American mediation, without the participation of representatives of European countries.

He explained in a statement to reporters: “What will happen in Abu Dhabi, in the coming days, are tripartite talks between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States. As for the presence of the Europeans, you know that the Americans have their own channels of communication with the Europeans and Ukrainians, and it seems that they are already building their own coordination mechanism, but I repeat again, we are talking about tripartite talks only.

However, the European influence on the course of the negotiations seemed clear through a number of European countries sending representatives to Abu Dhabi. To continue discussions with the Ukrainian and American sides outside the negotiating hall.

In the content of the discussion, the Kremlin made clear its readiness to discuss the issues of land and security guarantees, and Peskov said that Moscow would not publicly discuss models of future security negotiations.

But he added: “Regarding the shape of Ukraine, it is a different country geographically. “The facts on the ground are clear, and no one is likely to deny them.”

In this context, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow welcomes Washington's approach to discussing security guarantees during the upcoming tripartite talks that include Kiev.

Lavrov said: “I heard a statement from Marco Rubio indicating that security issues are gaining fundamental importance in the Abu Dhabi talks, and even in the context of the entire situation surrounding the Ukrainian conflict. Moreover, the agenda of the Abu Dhabi talks places the security concerns of Russia, Ukraine, and the region as a whole at the top of the list of priorities. We, without a doubt, welcome this approach.”

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pre-empted the tour by confirming continued coordination with the Europeans on all the details presented. He announced that he held talks with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to coordinate positions with the European Union, ahead of the talks with Russia, mediated by the United States.

European powers are intensifying their diplomatic efforts to ensure that any settlement of the Russian war on Ukraine is fair to Kiev, and to avoid Washington providing new security guarantees to Moscow without consulting the Europeans.

Zelensky said on the “X” platform: “Ursula (von der Leyen) and I also coordinated our positions regarding the meeting in Abu Dhabi. We are doing everything in our power to ensure that the tripartite talks lead to results.”

In turn, the President of the European Commission confirmed via social media following the conversation that “the European Union will be present alongside our partners” in the Abu Dhabi talks scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, echoing statements made by the French Foreign Minister over the weekend.

A European Union official told Agence France-Presse that national security officials from the European Union, NATO, France, Germany and the United Kingdom will be present in Abu Dhabi, although the nature of their participation is not yet clear.

The US President raised European fears of an American rapprochement with the Kremlin after the two parties concluded the diesel deal two weeks ago. European circles spoke of reaching a “very large” agreement with Russia, which includes not only Ukraine, but “all of Europe.”

The statements of Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, increased European concern, after he said that Washington was working on a "broader European security architecture that could help create the conditions for achieving lasting peace" in Ukraine.

Kushner participated via video last week in a meeting in Brussels that included European, Ukrainian and NATO officials, and said that Washington would consult with its European partners “on the sidelines” of the Abu Dhabi talks. European allies have long rejected Moscow's efforts to reshape the European security architecture.

Before launching war on Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin issued an ultimatum to NATO that included a demand to withdraw NATO forces from the regions surrounding Russia.