Japanese scholar Ogasawara Yoshiyuki analyzes the New Taipei City election: Su Qiaohui and Li Sichuan are evenly matched

The countdown to the nine-in-one elections at the end of the year continues. Japanese scholar Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, who has long been paying attention to Taiwan's political dynamics, believes that the key battleground for the year-end election is New Taipei City. He also believes that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui and KMT candidate Li Sichuan are close to a close match in the polls. In this regard, Ogasawara Yoshiyuki published an exclusive interview with Su Qiaohui and Li Sichuan’s thoughts.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki said in a Facebook post that the biggest decisive battle in the nine-in-one election is New Taipei City, which has the largest population in Taiwan. This election presents a one-on-one showdown between the KMT candidate Li Sichuan and the DPP candidate Su Qiaohui. In addition, there is a less well-known candidate. The Kuomintang in New Taipei City has been in power for 5 terms and 21 years since 2005 (including the period of the predecessor Taipei County). In terms of basic base, the KMT has a slight advantage over the DPP, but there are also a certain number of middle voters. Recent media polls show Su Qiaohui slightly ahead. With two months to go until polling day, the outcome of the election is still undecided.

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Ogasawara Yoshiyuki pointed out that candidate Su Qiaohui is a legislator who has been elected three times in the 5th District of New Taipei City. She is the daughter of Su Zhenchang, who once served as Taipei County Magistrate and Chief Executive Officer. Although she is a second-generation politician, she has long continued to work in the fields of education, childcare, welfare and other fields, and has blazed her own path in politics. The last time she visited was in November 2015. During the legislative election process when she ran for and was elected for the first time, she asked candidate Su Qiaohui about the election situation in New Taipei, the impact of ocean currents, the impact of the internal and external environment and other issues. Because the two sides did not disclose the content of the discussion, we were able to have a more in-depth and candid exchange of views, which was very fruitful for studying Taiwan’s elections. Even though he had a very busy schedule, Candidate Su still found time to be interviewed, for which Yoshiyuki Ogasawara expressed his sincere gratitude.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki pointed out in another post that the Kuomintang in New Taipei City has been in power for 5 terms and 21 years since 2005 (including the predecessor Taipei County period). In terms of basic base, the KMT has a slight advantage over the DPP, but there are also a certain number of middle voters. Recent media polls show Su Qiaohui slightly ahead. With two months to go until polling day, the outcome of the election is still undecided.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki analyzed that candidate Li Sichuan served as deputy mayor in New Taipei City, Kaohsiung City, and Taipei City, and also served as the Secretary-General of the Party Central Committee during the period of Chairman Zhu Lilun of the Kuomintang. Rather than standing on the stage, he mainly plays a behind-the-scenes role. His main feature is his solid administrative ability and he has accumulated a lot of achievements. This is his first time running for election, and it is also the first time Ogasawara Yoshiyuki has visited.

Ogasawara Yoshiyuki said bluntly that he asked candidate Li Sichuan about the election situation in New Taipei, the impact of ocean currents, the impact of the internal and external environment and other issues. Because both sides kept the discussion content private, we were able to have a more in-depth and candid exchange of views, which was very fruitful for my research on Taiwan’s elections. Candidate Li still took the time to be interviewed despite a very busy schedule, for which I would like to express my sincere gratitude.