Japan's Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Shun Suzuki said in a program a day ago that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae will make high-level personnel changes in the Liberal Democratic Party on September 16 and reorganize the cabinet on the 17th.
It is reported that this will be Gao Shi’s first cabinet reshuffle since he came to power in October 2025. Previous analysis said that cabinet members who may remain in office include Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki, etc.
Why did Gao Shi reshuffle his cabinet at this time? Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Takaichi Sanae's plan to reorganize the cabinet and make adjustments to some senior figures in the ruling party is largely due to concerns about the foundation of his own governance.
Looking at it now, Takaichi Sanae's public support rate has dropped, which will have a certain impact on promoting her political right-leaning policy in the future.
The reshuffling of cabinet members, especially the strengthening of cooperation with the jointly-ruling Restoration Council, and personnel adjustments within the Liberal Democratic Party, show that Sanae Takaichi is concerned about the unstable foundation of the current ruling, and hopes to stabilize its position through adjustments within the party and cabinet members.
Zhang Yulai, deputy dean of the Institute of Japanese Studies at Nankai University, also believes that judging from the history of postwar Japanese constitutionalism, it is relatively rare to reshuffle the cabinet less than one year after taking office, which also proves that the Gaoshi regime has actually been undercurrent.
Takaichi's "strengthening the military" line and fiscal policy have met with great opposition in Japan, and even the opposition within the Liberal Democratic Party is getting stronger. For example, former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Yu Moriyama, former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and former Foreign Minister Taro Kono have all raised objections to Takaichi's relevant policies. In addition, serious cracks have emerged in its policy towards the United States.
There are three considerations in choosing this time to reshuffle the cabinet: first, to prepare for the autumn interim Congress and to deal with Japan-US economic friction at the same time. The upcoming extraordinary Congress will review major matters such as consumption tax reduction and revision of the "Three Security Documents"; secondly, make arrangements in advance for next year's presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party; thirdly, release the backlog of personnel arrangements within the Liberal Democratic Party.
It is understood that Takaichi is coordinating the appointment of Hiroshi Nakaji, the secretary-general of the Japanese Restoration Society of Japan, the ruling partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, to join the cabinet. If realized, this would be the first time a member of the Reform Society has been appointed to the cabinet.
Zhang Yulai said that Gao Shi wanted to include members of the Reform Society into the cabinet in order to change the basic structure of the cabinet and thereby consolidate the stability of his regime.
Since the Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Society formed a ruling alliance in October 2025, the Reform Society has been participating in the operation of the government through "cooperation outside the cabinet". Once Nakaji Hiroshi, the Secretary-General of the Reform Council, enters the cabinet, it will mark that the joint governance between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Council has become closer.
Gao Shi wants to include members of the Reform Society into the cabinet this time. The deeper consideration is the shared responsibility. Once members of the Reform Society enter the cabinet, the Reform Society will also become an important force in promoting relevant bills, which will greatly ease the difficulty of passing relevant bills in the interim Congress.
The United States is putting pressure on Japan from multiple directions and including members of the Reform Council into the cabinet. Objectively, it is building a broader system to complete negotiations on funding issues for the U.S. military stationed in Japan in the next five years and the revision of the "Three Security Documents" before the end of the year. It can not only explain to the United States, but also gain solid domestic political support.
According to Japanese media reports on the 15th, the Takashima City Cabinet approved a system outline on the same day, which plans to reduce the food consumption tax rate from 8% to 1% starting in April 2027, and the tax reduction period will last for two years. The plan requires adjusting government revenue and expenditure to make up for the tax losses caused by tax cuts, without relying on deficit national debt, as the basis for related bills, which are expected to be submitted to the interim Congress for consideration in the fall.
Zhang Yulai said that the food consumption tax reduction will still face many doubts during the review of the interim parliament. This is a hastily introduced political product driven by tax reduction populism. The fatal flaw is that it will have a serious impact on Japan's finances.
First, financial resources have not been implemented and resolved at all. The food consumption tax reduction from 8% to 1% is equivalent to a reduction of 4.3 trillion yen in tax revenue per year, but where will the money come from? The outline only states that there will be no reliance on national debt for deficits, and the specific plan will be postponed until the preparation of the budget at the end of the year. The Japanese government's debt has reached 1,346 trillion yen.
Second, this policy will also cause a local fiscal gap of 1.6 trillion yen, causing a fatal impact on local finances.
Third, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise the policy interest rate from 1.0% to 1.25% in September. This tax cut will also offset the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike policy.
Finally, this policy will also cause dissatisfaction in the United States. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent made it clear on September 1 that Japan should stop its reflation policy. Even if the interim Congress manages to pass the bill, problems will pile up in the future.
The latest poll conducted by the Japan Broadcasting Association in the three days ending September 13th showed that when asked "Do you feel that the economy is getting better?" 15% of people answered "yes", while 78% said "no". Previously, a number of Japanese polls also showed that Gaoshi's support rate continued to decline.
Lu Yaodong said that Japan's food consumption tax reduction is only a stop-gap measure. Gao Shi is not committed to fulfilling his campaign promises, but is bent on the path of "remilitarization", which is obviously unpopular.
The decline in Takaichi Sanae's approval rating is largely related to her inability to implement her campaign promises to boost Japan's economy and improve people's livelihood. The two-year food consumption tax reduction is only a temporary measure aimed at stabilizing public opinion and does not really address people's livelihood issues.
Gaoshi is more inclined to policies such as increasing defense budgets and making enemies of neighboring countries, so its public support rate is relatively low.
If the Gao City Government fails to fulfill its campaign promises and only increases the defense budget to rearm Japan, it will be unpopular.
Reporter: Du Huiqin
Source: CCTV Global Information
