Polling stations have opened their doors to tens of millions of Americans for the midterm congressional elections throughout the United States, where the number is expected to reach more than 100 million people. More than 57 million of them voted in early voting during the past few weeks, in a process that will reveal within hours who the Republican and Democratic parties control the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as the level of popular response to the policies of President Donald Trump in the middle of his second term and its future during the next two years.
The elections include all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, in addition to 36 positions for state governors and thousands of seats in state legislative councils.
The Democrats need at least 3 additional seats to win the majority in the House of Representatives, while in the Senate, they currently hold 47 seats, and they need 51 seats to control the majority in it, meaning they need to win four seats.
As a result of these elections, Trump can remain an American and global “roaring eagle” if the Republicans maintain the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and continue to have a free hand as in the first two years of his second term, or he can turn into a “lame duck” if the results favor the Democrats.
Final polls indicate a Democratic lead. The Silver Bulletin poll average shows them leading by about 9 points in general congressional polls, while an NBC News poll shows them leading by 52 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. Trump's average approval rating is 37.3 percent, which is near its lowest levels.
Trump's team expects Republicans to maintain control of both chambers. “If our voters turn out massively, we will win,” Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said.
Record number
The University of Florida Elections Lab counted more than 57 million early votes as of Monday afternoon. This is a record number for a midterm election, far exceeding the 45.9 million early votes in 2022.
This increase extended to several swing states. An analysis conducted by the Associated Press showed that early voting in the final days of the election campaign rose by 83 percent in South Carolina compared to the same period in 2022, 44 percent in Maine, 34 percent in Kansas, and 32 percent in Michigan, and Texas alone recorded 7.7 million early votes.
Registered Democrats outperform registered Republicans by about 3 million early votes in the 27 states that declare party registrations, and this number does not show how anyone votes.
The number of Americans who will vote in total is still unclear, although projections estimate that the number could reach 100 million of the 210 million registered voters in the United States.
One polling data analysis site's model expects turnout to range between 47 and 52 percent of eligible voters, with a probability of 49 percent. The same website indicates that the 2018 midterm elections, which witnessed the highest voter turnout in the modern era, recorded about 118 million votes, or 49.3 percent.
Michael McDonald of the Elections Lab cautioned that a record early voting does not necessarily guarantee a record turnout. “If we don't see Republicans participating at the same level as other groups, the country may not reach the level of the 2018 election," he said.
Open doors
There is no uniform national date for voting; Each state sets its own time, and most polling centers operate from seven in the morning until seven or eight in the evening, local time.
Vermont opened the doors of its polling stations at five in the morning, while centers in Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Virginia opened at six in the morning. As for New Hampshire, its polling stations open at eleven in the morning.
The first polls close at 6 p.m. EST in most states of Indiana and Kentucky, followed by Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Florida at 7 p.m., then North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m.
Polls in Maine, Michigan, and Texas close at 8 p.m., and in some eastern states, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, New York, and Wisconsin, at 9 p.m. As for Nevada, the doors of its centers are open until ten in the evening, and in California at eleven at night. In Hawaii and Alaska, polling stations close at midnight, and the last polling stations close at 1 a.m. EST, Wednesday.
17 thousand candidates
During the electoral processes, including the primaries, the Democratic and Republican parties fielded 17,205 candidates for Congress and government offices in this year's regular primaries, according to the "Pallotpedia" website: 8,824 Democrats and 8,381 Republicans.
The House of Representatives attracted 2,260 candidates, the largest number since 2018, with 1,248 Democrats and 1,012 Republicans. The 33 regular Senate elections witnessed the nomination of 294 candidates, including 135 Democrats and 159 Republicans. This number does not include special elections in Florida and Ohio.
As for the state legislative council elections, 13,325 candidates ran for 6,137 seats. 1,185 candidates ran for 289 executive positions in the states, including the position of governor, and 141 candidates ran for 69 judicial seats.
These numbers include everyone who ran in the primary, so far fewer names appear on the ballot. It also does not include independent candidates and candidates of other parties.
Senate
Democrats' path in the Senate passes through Republican-controlled seats, where polls show them with a narrow lead. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Senator Susan Collins by between two and seven points. Former Senator Sherrod Brown topped most polls in Ohio, while Mary Peltula led in Alaska. In Texas, James Tallarico leads Ken Paxton in most fall polls, and in North Carolina, Roy Cooper leads by about 11 points on average.
Republicans are leading or remaining competitive in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and South Carolina. Democrats must also defend Michigan, where Abdel-Rahman El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim senator in the Senate if he wins, faces Republican Mike Rogers in an election race affected by divisions over Israel and Gaza.
House of Representatives
Predicting the results of the House of Representatives may be more difficult; Redistricting in southern states can limit Democrats' gains even with their significant lead nationally, and polls can make mistakes, as has happened repeatedly during past election cycles.
The courts have already begun making important decisions for this election. The justices rejected the Department of Justice's efforts to issue mail-in ballots in California and certify Alaska's results, and California Governor Gavin Newsom warned that federal agents may seek to confiscate ballots.
The results of many election races may not be announced until after midnight EST. The counting of votes in Alaska may take two weeks.
US President Donald Trump called on voters to go to the polls and cast their votes “as if his name was on the ballot papers,” to ensure a Republican victory. A call that may benefit his party among its popular base, but may turn against it among other segments of voters.
The American vote in these elections does not necessarily mean support for a candidate, as much as it is an expression of opposition to the American President and his policies internally and externally. This is what is shown by the numbers of a number of opinion polls, which indicate that opposition to Trump constitutes a basic electoral motivation for a wide segment of voters. In a Pew Research Center poll, 44 percent of registered voters said their vote would be against Trump. While more than 70 percent of Democratic voters, in a CBS poll, considered their vote to be an expression of opposition to the president. Numbers indicate that Trump has become a major mobilizing factor for the Democratic base, and that his opposition may take precedence over the candidates’ electoral platforms for many voters.
Opposition strategy
Democrats take advantage of this reality; They built their election campaigns on attacking Trump and his agenda. This strategy may help them make gains in Congress, and perhaps seize a majority in one or both chambers.
But the problem with a strategy of this kind is that it may help Democrats win, but it will not guarantee that voters will remain satisfied with them after the election. Opposition to Trump does not necessarily reflect voter confidence in Democrats.
A CBS poll showed that many party supporters are motivated by opposition to Trump and Republican policies, rather than by their desire to support a clear Democratic agenda. About 40 percent of them considered that the party “does not have a clear plan” if it takes control of Congress.
Indeed, it does not appear that there is yet a unified and clear party program regarding the priorities for the next stage in the event of victory, although Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries sought to outline his party’s agenda. He finally announced a plan for the first hundred days; It includes lowering the cost of living, reforming the health care system, confronting Trump's tariffs, and addressing war with Iran. The party is also preparing to launch extensive investigations into management practices.
But the existence of this agenda does not necessarily mean that Democrats agree on how to implement it or arrange its priorities, especially in light of the differences between the progressive and moderate wings, and the restrictions that will be imposed by Trump’s continuation in the White House. Some Democrats stress that reforming the health care system is a top priority, some call for reforming the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency (ICE), and others want to approve projects to revive the economy.
On the other hand, many are anticipating the restoration of oversight and accountability powers that would allow them to investigate the administration’s practices and seek to isolate Trump or some officials in his administration.
Democratic priorities
But converting opposition to Trump into electoral gains is one thing, and translating it into a legislative agenda that meets the aspirations of voters is another. Between the multiplicity of issues at hand and the varying priorities within the Democratic Party, a basic question emerges: What do voters actually expect from the next Congress?
It may seem that a vote against Trump would mean a mandate for Democrats to hold him accountable and confront his administration. However, opinion polls paint a more complex picture. According to an Associated Press poll, about 80 percent of voters want Congress to give priority to reducing the cost of living, and about 70 percent to ending the war with Iran, compared to about 40 percent who want lawmakers to give priority to investigating the practices of the Trump administration.
Here lies the paradox; The voter may vote against Trump, but he does not necessarily want the next Congress to be preoccupied with confronting him at the expense of issues that affect his daily life. Will the Democrats be able to meet the aspirations of voters if they reach a majority, or will their internal divisions make the next stage one of tug of war and political confrontations with no significant results?
