The 2026 US midterm elections will shape the remaining political phase of President Donald Trump's term, and will determine his ability to implement his domestic and foreign policies, test the popularity of his performance, and reveal the position of American public opinion on his administration's policies.
This year's midterm election campaign has been marked by intense political polarization, partisan divisions over the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, as well as ongoing debate over the Trump administration's way of exercising power. The results of these elections may establish a different political phase in Washington if the Republicans lose their majority in one of the two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate, or both.
Although the US President has broad executive powers, he inevitably needs the cooperation of Congress to pass legislation, approve budgets, and approve key appointments, as well as to fund many of his administration’s programs.
The results of previous midterm elections usually resulted in the ruling party losing parliamentary seats by an average of 27 in the House of Representatives and 3 in the Senate. But these historical rates do not necessarily mean that previous results will be repeated in the 2026 elections.
Republicans entered this election controlling both chambers. Public opinion polls expect them to lose their majority in the House of Representatives, while their chances - albeit slim - remain of maintaining their majority in the Senate.
Scenario of Democratic control of the House of Representatives
The Trump administration will find itself facing a new political reality if the Democrats win the majority in the House of Representatives. The president will face a major shift in the balance of power in Washington, as it is expected that the remaining two years of his term will witness a political and institutional confrontation with his democratic opponents.
Disrupting the President's legislative agenda
This scenario would face Trump with difficulties in passing his projects related to taxes and government spending. Democrats will also use their expected presidential veto power to block any legislation that does not receive White House approval. They will be able to block legislative initiatives that do not satisfy them.
Open investigations
Democrats will regain leadership of parliamentary committees, and will be able to subpoena administration officials, investigate immigration, tariffs, and foreign policy files, and perhaps introduce new impeachment measures, although this does not necessarily mean the president can be convicted. They will exercise stricter control over the White House's performance.
Surrounding appointments
Democratic control of the Senate will hinder or delay the approval of the President's judicial, administrative, and legislative appointments, especially those related to judges and senior officials. Passing budgets and raising the debt ceiling will also become more complicated, with the possibility of a recurrence of government closure crises. In short, the room for maneuver available to President Donald Trump will shrink further as Democrats attempt to rebuild their political position and present themselves as an alternative in the 2028 presidential elections.
The scale of the Republican Party's potential losses in the midterm elections will have major implications for President Trump's political future. Questions will be raised within the party about the president’s political strategy at a time when he faces a harsh political and popular test and an indirect referendum on his performance.
Scenario where Republicans maintain their majority in both chambers
President Trump will have the opportunity to continue implementing his political program if the Democrats are unable to seize the majority, and he will strengthen his position within his party and maintain the influence of the movement associated with him in determining the future directions of American policy before the upcoming elections. Thus, President Donald Trump will enter the last two years of his term with a wider margin for action, as he will consider the result a renewal of confidence in his political program and the slogan “America First.”
Internally, the president will work to leverage his party's potential majority in Congress to pass the remainder of his agenda, such as tightening immigration laws, strengthening border controls, expanding tax reduction policies, and reducing regulatory restrictions on companies and the energy sectors. He will also try to strengthen his administration's influence in federal institutions.
Economically, it is likely to continue to rely on tariffs as a tool to protect American industry and put pressure on trading partners, despite the disagreements this policy may raise within the Republican Party regarding inflation and trade.
On a partisan level, the potential repercussions of the Republican Party’s loss will open the door to an early discussion about its future after Trump, especially since the president cannot run for a third presidential term. Disagreements may increase over the identity of the party and its next leadership, and competition will emerge between figures aspiring to inherit Trump’s political influence.
Externally, Trump is expected to continue his hard-line approach in demanding that European allies bear greater responsibility for their security, and to re-evaluate US military commitments abroad and Washington’s handling of the Middle East files, the war with Iran, the relationship with Israel, the war in Ukraine, and the competition with China.
In all cases, the real stake in these elections relates to the future of Trump’s political influence, the ability of the Democratic Party to regain the initiative, and the form that the competition for power in the United States will take leading up to the 2028 elections.
In your opinion:
Do you believe the forecasts of opinion polls and that the Democrats will win the majority in both chambers of Congress?
Will the results of the midterm elections change the political landscape in Washington?
Does the president accept a possible loss for his party in these elections?
How will the Democratic opposition in Congress behave toward the president if it obtains a majority?
Are we witnessing an open confrontation between Democrats and the White House that could lead to an attempt to impeach the president?
To what extent could Republicans losing their majority in Congress paralyze Trump's political agenda and disrupt his projects?
Will a possible defeat for Republicans in Congress lead to escalation of divisions within the party and the start of the battle to succeed Trump?
Could this potential electoral loss signal the end of the era for President Trump?
We will discuss these and other topics with you in the episode of Wednesday, November 4.
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