Columbia University professor: Trump's impeachment is possible only with a record Democratic victory in the congressional elections

NEW YORK, October 4 - RIA Novosti. An attempt to impeach US President Donald Trump will not succeed without a record victory for the Democrats in the November congressional elections, since they need 20 more seats in the Senate than in the current composition, Robert Shapiro, a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University in New York, told RIA Novosti.

The new composition of the House of Representatives, as well as the fate of 35 seats in the Senate, will be determined in the US elections on November 3. Republicans currently control parliament by a small margin. Trump is warning supporters that a Democratic victory could lead to a $5 trillion tax increase and the opposition will try to remove him from power.

According to Shapiro, for such an initiative to succeed in the Senate, Democrats would need 20 more votes than they currently have to reach 67 seats.

“To approve articles of impeachment in the House of Representatives, you need a simple majority of votes - that is, 218. To convict in the Senate, you need a two-thirds vote,” Shapiro said.

The lower house of the US Parliament begins the impeachment procedure. If the proposed charges are supported by a majority of legislators, the case is sent to the Senate. There the procedure takes place in the form of a trial. If impeachment is supported by two-thirds of legislators, the official is removed from office; without the required number of votes, the official is acquitted. There have been attempts to impeach several US presidents - Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998 and Trump in 2019 and 2021. The House of Representatives supported the charges, but the Senate acquitted each time.

"Democrats can try to impeach, but they will need a majority in the House to approve the charge first," Shapiro said.

According to him, such an attempt will only make sense if he wins the fight for seats in the House of Representatives. Republicans now have 218 legislative seats needed to support the initiatives and one independent representative in the coalition.

There are 53 Republicans in the Senate, 45 Democrats and two independents in coalition with them. Of the 35 seats in the upper house whose fate will be decided by the upcoming elections, 13 are controlled by Democrats, meaning they need to win almost everywhere to achieve a supermajority.

Since 1946, only twice has the party holding the White House won additional seats in Congress in midterm elections: in 1998 and 2002. The Democrats' loss in 2010 was a record in modern history: the party lost 63 seats in the House and six Senate seats. In the 1958 midterm elections (Republican Dwight Eisenhower was president), the opposition won 15 additional seats in the Senate and a 65-seat majority.