The state elections this Sunday (4) will, once again, crown the strength of well-known politicians, with experience in public office and consolidated party structures. At the same time, they should mark a rise of the right and central parties in command of state governments.
The dispute could end in the first round in up to 16 states and the Federal District, where governors up for re-election, former governors and former mayors emerge.
On the right, the PL appears as the party with the most chances of winning in the states. The party that elected only two governors in 2022 is now competing with competitive names in nine states, and could win in the first round in Santa Catarina, Roraima and Rio Grande do Sul.
The party must contest the second round in large electoral colleges such as Rio de Janeiro and Paraná. Therefore, the Bolsonaro base in these states must be mobilized for the presidential dispute, which is heading towards a direct clash between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
Parties from the center should also gain space in command of state governments. The Republicans, who have two governors, can close a kind of conservative belt in the Southeast, where they are contesting with chances of victory in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
The União Progressista federation emerges with competitive candidates in six states and the Federal District. The PP reached four governors after the rise of vice-presidents and party migrations.
Among those who could win in the first round for the party are Eduardo Riedel, in Mato Grosso do Sul, and Celina Leão, in the Federal District, supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro. Lucas Ribeiro, in Paraíba, is an ally of President Lula.
In União Brasil, the three names with chances of victory focused on state disputes, avoiding taking a position in the national clash between Lulistas and Bolsonaristas. This is the case of Allyson Bezerra, in Rio Grande do Norte, ACM Neto, in Bahia, and Dorinha Seabra, in Tocantins.
The left works to keep the Northeast as its main electoral stronghold. Four years ago, the PT elected four governors, in addition to two from the PSB who were re-elected in that election. Now, the perspective is that, in the best case scenario, the left will make five governors in the region.
But it won't be an easy task. The PT governments face erosion in Bahia and Ceará, states in which the election must be decided by a narrow margin. Governors Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and Elmano de Freitas (PT) count on Lula's strength to overcome their opponents.
In Pernambuco, João Campos (PSB) is also betting on the support of President Lula to prevail over Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD), in yet another state where the election must be contested vote by vote. In Piauí, Rafael Fonteles (PT) emerges as the favorite.
Outside the Northeast, the left is trying to reach the second round in four federation units with Patrus Ananias (PT-MG), Leandro Grass (PT), Juliana Brizola (PDT-RS), Requião Filho (PDT-PR). But this Saturday's polls (3) indicate that the opponents could win in the first round in Minas Gerais, Distrito Federal and Rio Grande do Sul.
Center parties try to maintain their history of strong presence in state governments, a pattern since redemocratization. The MDB works to remain ahead of the governments of Goiás, Pará, Alagoas and Espírito Santo, but faces an uncertain scenario in the last three.
The PSD, which has four governors, seeks to maintain its leading role in the states after a turbulent presidential campaign, in which Ronaldo Caiado's candidacy for President did not take off.
The party is trying to stay ahead of the governments of Pernambuco, Sergipe and Paraná, emerging as favorite in Maranhão, Amazonas and Amapá, in addition to betting its chips on the election of Eduardo Paes in Rio de Janeiro.
The PSDB, which lost space in the National Congress and did not launch a candidate for the Presidency, is trying to get back into the game in the states with the candidacies of Ciro Gomes in Ceará, João Henrique Caldas in Alagoas, Marconi Perillo in Goiás and Vicentinho in Tocantins.
Among the first or second placed in the polls, there are 17 governors up for re-election, 9 senators, 3 former governors, 3 federal deputies, 3 state deputies and 14 former mayors.
Only two candidates among the favorites have never held elected office: Maria do Carmo Seffair (PL), a Bolsonarista businesswoman who is running for government in Amazonas, and Orleans Brandão (MDB), nephew of governor Carlos Brandão (MDB) who is running in Maranhão on the strength of his surname.
Senator Cleitinho, leader in polls in Minas, is one of the few favorites without prior experience in the Executive Branch – he was a councilor and state deputy before arriving in the Senate. Opponents point to the candidate's inexperience, which minimizes criticism.
The expectation is for an election different from 2018, when there was a high level of renewal amid an anti-political wave. That year, seven of the elected governors had no previous experience in public administration and were contesting an election for the first time.
The scenario was reversed four years later, with the prevalence of politicians with a track record in institutional politics and a country divided between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
Polarization continues to be present in most states this year, but the gubernatorial elections are not organized uniformly. In four states —Acre, Mato Grosso, Roraima, Santa Catarina—, the two main candidates are aligned with the Bolsonarist camp.
In states in the Northeast, center-right candidates avoided clashes with Lula, remained neutral in the presidential election and encouraged crossover voting.
Among all the federation units, only Rio Grande do Norte has a chance of a direct clash between PT and PL in the second round.
