In the first three quarters of this year, China's property market passed a key watershed - data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development showed that from January to September, the online area of second-hand housing transactions nationwide reached 617 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the transaction ratio rose to 52.2%. Existing housing transactions steadily account for "half of the real estate market."
Against the background of the contraction of the national new home market, second-hand home sales continue to grow. What kind of market signals are hidden in this increase and decrease?
Quantitative changes
——In 20 provinces across the country, the online signing volume of second-hand housing exceeds that of new commercial housing
In the first three quarters of this year, the most obvious change in China's property market sales is that new homes are "shrinking" and second-hand homes are "rising".
Data show that from January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide fell by 13.2% year-on-year. But at the same time, the online contract area for second-hand housing transactions nationwide was approximately 617 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Among them, September increased by 11.7% year-on-year. In addition, in 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country, the online transaction volume of second-hand residential properties exceeds that of new commercial residential properties.
"In the first three quarters, the activity of second-hand housing transactions increased significantly, and the total housing demand remained basically stable, playing an important role in the smooth operation of the market." said Yu Xiaofen, dean of the China Housing and Real Estate Research Institute of Zhejiang University of Technology. In the single month of September, the growth rate of online second-hand housing transaction area was faster than the cumulative growth rate, indicating that the activity of second-hand housing transactions is still increasing after entering the "Golden September".
Why is the second-hand housing market active? What home buyers value is the stability of market policies and the accessibility of second-hand homes.
In Pudong, Shanghai, Chen Xuyang recently bought a second-hand two-bedroom apartment. "The unit price of new houses in the same area is higher, and it will take some time to hand over the house. But the second-hand house is visible and tangible, has a clear school district, and is close to the subway. For a rigid need like me, certainty is the most important." Chen Xuyang told reporters that she looked at houses for two or three months, compared more than a dozen houses, and finally chose this second-hand house with a controllable total price.
Recently, the real estate market activity in first-tier cities including Shanghai has increased. From January to September, Shanghai’s first and second-hand housing transactions totaled 226,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; in October, Shanghai’s second-hand housing (including commercial) cumulative online signings were 24,653 units, a month-on-month increase of 4.2%, a significant year-on-year increase of 32.9%, a new high for the same period since 2021. The number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased significantly year-on-year in September, maintaining resilience for many consecutive months.
"Since the beginning of this year, the total number of second-hand housing transactions has accounted for more than half of the total housing transactions, and the real estate market has entered the era of stock." said Liu Lin, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. In September, the real estate market remained generally stable, dominated by existing transactions, with "wind vane" cities playing a leading role in stabilizing the market.
"The total housing demand in the stock era mainly consists of two aspects: new housing and second-hand housing." Liu Lin said. The total demand for housing is diverse, including the rigid demand of local residents and new citizens, the replacement demand of "trading small for big" and "old for new", the improvement needs of families with many children, the demand brought by lifestyle adjustments such as living alone, and the demand brought by urban renewal, etc. Although the number of newly built homes has declined in recent years, the total housing demand for new and second-hand homes combined has remained stable. In the first three quarters, the total number of new and second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities and some regional central cities showed positive year-on-year growth.
"At present, various regions continue to increase the guidance of housing policies such as "small for big" and "old for new", and the rigid demand, replacement and improvement demand, and quality upgrade demand continue to be released, which together form the underlying support for the smooth operation of the market." Yu Xiaofen said.
price signal
——The price of high-quality, sub-new and improved housing in first-tier cities and core areas has stabilized
The active transaction volume in the housing market is being selectively transmitted to the price side.
Liu Shan, an agent at a housing agency in Chaoyang District, Beijing, feels very directly: "Compared to the previous one or two years, the bargaining space on the landlord's side has narrowed this year." She said that customers who bought second-hand houses last year could bargain for hundreds of thousands, but now for houses with good floors and orientations, owners can give up to 30,000 to 50,000 at most. The psychological expectations of both owners and buyers are improving.
This micro-feeling of real estate agents is reflected in macro data. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September this year, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which has been rising for 7 consecutive months; among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices rising month-on-month increased to 9, 6 more than last month. Second-hand residential sales prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.1% and 0.2% respectively month-on-month.
During the same period, the sales price performance of the new home market in first-tier cities also improved. Data show that in September, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen increased by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively.
"In the stock era, housing market differentiation will become the norm." Liu Lin analyzed that from the perspective of housing price changes, the prices of high-quality, sub-new, and improved housing in first-tier cities and core areas have stabilized or even increased slightly. In September, 21 of the 70 cities saw sales prices of new homes rising or staying the same month-on-month, and 11 cities saw sales prices of second-hand homes rising or staying the same month-on-month. The number of cities has increased.
While prices are stabilizing, the supply side is also "subtracting". According to statistics from real estate research institution CRIC, at the end of September, a total of 412,000 second-hand houses were listed in first-tier cities, a decrease of 13,500 units from the end of April. As of the end of September, the number of listings by major intermediaries in Beijing dropped by 12% from the beginning of the year, and the number of second-hand housing listings in Wuhan dropped by 19.04% year-on-year.
"The decrease in the number of second-hand house listings is due to the stabilization of prices, which has boosted expectations, and owners taking the initiative to withdraw their listings. On the other hand, the active second-hand house transactions in the early period have also greatly consumed the number of listings." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed.
The shrinking supply and active transactions have substantially improved the supply-demand relationship in key cities. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of September, the area of newly built commercial housing for sale nationwide was 748.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, and a decline for seven consecutive months. Among them, the area for sale less than 3 years ago fell by 5.0% year-on-year. The area of commercial housing for sale nationwide has steadily declined, and inventory levels have continued to fall. Mao Shengyong, spokesperson and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that since the end of December last year, the area of commercial housing for sale has continued to decline, and the decline has been expanding, and the destocking effect has been obvious.
"As supply gradually clears, the relationship between supply and demand further improves, creating conditions for subsequent stable price expectations." Yu Xiaofen said.
Unblocking the chain
——The replacement chain linking primary and second-hand housing has become an important engine for releasing demand.
The second-hand housing market has supported "volume" and core cities have stabilized "price." For the market to further "turn around", a key link must be present: a smooth replacement chain.
Zhou Xiaolei, from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, sold an old house in the west of the city this year and wanted to exchange for a larger and improved house. "The old house was listed on the intermediary platform for half a year, and there were many people viewing the house. Until the end of August, it was finally sold at a price slightly lower than the listing price." He said, "Although the old house was sold, the cost of changing the house still needs to be settled again."
Zhou Xiaolei’s experience is a real sticking point in the replacement chain of the current real estate market: whether buyers of improved housing can enter the market depends on whether the low-priced houses that are just in demand can be circulated first. At present, the needs of home buyers vary, but they point to one thing in common: most buyers who need improvement must first sell the house in their hands before they can replace it with the next one.
The replacement chain has two links: selling the old and buying the new. Whether low-priced houses that are just in demand can flow depends on whether the "selling old" side is accessible; and whether there are good enough improvement products on the market depends on whether the "buying new" side is attractive. Both links are indispensable.
"The supply elasticity of existing housing stock is much greater than that of newly built housing. The replacement chain of primary and second-hand housing is an important engine for releasing demand." Liu Lin said that the focus of real estate policy in the stock era should be to open up the replacement chain of primary and second-hand housing, revitalize existing assets, and promote urban renewal and the reform of the existing home sales system.
Policy is moving in this direction. In Shanghai, several districts have piloted the purchase of existing residential housing by district-affiliated affordable housing companies to open up the "old for new" program; in Hangzhou, the local area is exploring independent renewal of "government guidance and resident investment"; in Suzhou, Jiangsu, the local government encourages state-owned enterprises to acquire existing commercial housing and convert it into affordable rental housing...
In terms of the supply of "good houses", Li Yujia said that according to third-party data, in September this year, the scale of new supply in typical 50 cities increased by nearly 60% month-on-month, and the month-on-month increase was the highest this year. Judging from specific projects, with the differentiation of market structure, the popularity of some real estate markets has rebounded. "In September this year, a total of 12 "Sun CDs" were born in the five cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Tianjin and Changsha, five more than in August," Li Yujia said. The hot sales of “good house” projects are driving a partial recovery and boosting expectations.
Promoting the overall smoothness of the replacement chain requires the joint efforts of many parties. Wei Dongquan, deputy director of the Housing and Real Estate Industry Promotion Center of the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that local governments, real estate development companies, commercial banks and home buyers need to jointly adapt to the new stage and new characteristics of the stock era.
"Local governments must coordinate the stock and increase, accelerate the elimination of over-reliance on real estate and land finance, steadily promote urban renewal and renovation of old communities, smooth the chain of primary and second-hand housing replacement, promote mortgage transfers, reduce transaction costs, and improve the housing system that combines renting and purchasing." Wei Dongquan said that real estate development companies must speed up the role change, from single developers to urban service providers, deploy light asset businesses such as agency construction, leasing, and existing asset operations, and follow the path of quality and efficiency development. Commercial banks should also innovate housing finance products and services and optimize second-hand housing credit. Home buyers should adhere to rational consumption, plan their home purchases according to their ability, and realize step-by-step consumption from scratch to high-quality housing.
Our reporter Liao Ruiling
"People's Daily Overseas Edition" (November 04, 2026, Page 11)
