Vice Chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli were expelled from the Party and the military

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee recently decided to expel two senior generals, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, Member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff, from the Party and the military.

James Char, a China security scholar at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said, "It can be expected that Xi Jinping will continue to exercise decisive control and influence over China's military affairs, thereby consolidating his dominance over the party and the country. Because whoever controls the Chinese People's Liberation Army controls the party."

When Xi Jinping broke with convention and sought a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, he received the support of Zhang Youxia, then vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Zhang Youxia is therefore regarded as Xi Jinping's core "red second generation" ally and escort in the military. As a "return", Zhang Youxia, who was 72 years old at the time, was also able to break the practice of "seven up and eight down" among the CCP's top leaders (those aged 67 and below can stay in office or be promoted, and those aged 68 and above must leave and retire). Not only did he remain a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, but he was also promoted to the top-ranked Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

However, the contradiction and power struggle between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia broke out and intensified shortly after the 20th National Congress, and gradually moved from a hidden game to a white-hot one. During this period, major events that could be observed by the outside world include the dismissal of Zhang Youxia’s former Ministry of Military Equipment Development, the dismissal of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, the purge of the Rocket Force, which was involved in a huge procurement corruption case, and the subsequent overthrow of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman He Weidong and Central Military Commission member Miao Hua, both of whom were personally promoted by Xi Jinping.

Zhang Youxia obviously lost in the final contest. On January 24 this year, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, another senior general in the military, were under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.

"Eliminating major political risks for the party and the army"

After Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were announced to be expelled from the Party and the military on September 21, the People's Liberation Army Daily, the organ of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China, issued an article on the 23rd saying that the serious investigation and punishment of them had "eliminated major political risks for the party and the army." This confirmed the outside world's speculation that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli posed the most direct political threat to Xi Jinping's supreme power. Some commentators believe this is a euphemism for Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli's attempts to seize power.

The "Liberation Army Daily" article also clearly requires all officers and soldiers to "resolutely support the decisions of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission, consciously maintain a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core in ideology, politics and actions, resolutely obey the commands of the Party Central Committee, the Central Military Commission and Chairman Xi, unify their ideological understanding, strengthen their confidence and determination, work hard to overcome difficulties, and continue to win the historical initiative of strengthening the army." This aspect shows that there is still uneasiness, dissatisfaction, resistance, disobedience and other situations in the military.

The military's combat capabilities may be affected

The unrest caused by large-scale purge operations in the military may also affect the military's combat capabilities. The PLA Daily article stated that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were "alienated from the Party" and "severely contributed to political and corruption issues that affected the Party's absolute leadership over the military and jeopardized the Party's ruling foundation" and caused great damage to the military's political construction, political ecology and combat effectiveness.

“It’s hard to imagine that upheaval on this scale wouldn’t pose problems for more complex military operations — including dealing with contingencies over Taiwan,” said Ruby Osman, a China analyst at the Tony Blair Institute in London. “But she continued, “Clearly, in Xi’s view, this short-term upheaval is a price worth paying for long-term discipline and readiness.” "

Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected on the 21st

After Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were dismissed, only Xi Jinping and Zhang Shengmin were left in the 20th Central Military Commission, which originally consisted of seven people. James Char, an expert on Chinese security issues in Singapore, predicts that the leadership team of the Central Military Commission will not be completed until the 21st Congress of the Communist Party of China in the fall of 2027.

It is widely expected that Xi Jinping will establish his fourth five-year term at the 21st Congress. And this will increase the need for internal security. Although through the long-term anti-corruption struggle and the purge of those who are "disloyal" in the military, the CCP has been unable to substantively check and balance or challenge the factions or individuals who challenge Xi Jinping's status. However, in the face of complex economic and geopolitical environments, absolute centralization of power does not mean the complete elimination of unexpected risks, and the phenomenon of "fear of power and disobedience to morality" may still exist in official circles and the military.