Miaoli Toufen mayoral election poll: Zeng Minxue's support is slightly ahead of Xu Gongfan, and Xu Gongfan is more favorable

Zeng Wenxue, an independent Miaoli County councilor, ran for mayor of Toufen and received full support from the Democratic Progressive Party. According to reports, the latest poll conducted by Shanshui Public Opinion Research Company commissioned by the Spring Rain Cultural and Educational Foundation shows that Zeng Wenxue leads the KMT candidate Xu Gongfan with 36.6% support and 32.4%. The gap between the two parties is only 4.2 percentage points, and 31.0% of the respondents cannot choose. However, in terms of optimism, Xu leads the KMT candidate Xu Gongfan with 40.0% and 29.8%, showing a tug-of-war.

Further examining the voting intention, 58.7% of the respondents said they would "definitely" vote, 29.0% said "maybe", 5.4% "may not", 3.0% "definitely not" and 3.9% had no clear opinion. Observing the "definite voters" separately, Tsang Minxue's support rose slightly to 38.8%, and Xu Gongfan's support also rose to 35.8%. The gap between the two narrowed to 3.0 percentage points. The battle became more stalemate, and the proportion of people unable to choose a candidate dropped to 25.4%.

However, in terms of the mayor's optimism, there is a significant gap between voters' opinions on the outcome and their support. 40.0% of the respondents believe that Xu Gongfan is most likely to be elected mayor, which is higher than Zeng Weixue's 29.8%, with a gap of 10.2 percentage points. point, there are still 30.2% who are unable to choose a candidate; among those who will definitely vote, Xu Gongfan's optimism also scores 42.7%, continuing to lead Zeng Weixue's 32.7%, and 24.6% are unable to choose.

In terms of political party orientation and camp structure, the majority of Toufen City respondents were 33.0% who did not favor any political party, followed by the Kuomintang (31.9%), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 21.4%, the Taiwan People's Party (8.6%), and other political parties totaling 5.1%. If asked further, which camp did those who did not answer the KMT or the Democratic Party prefer? The pan-blue camp accounts for 34.5%, the pan-green camp accounts for 22.7%, the median voters account for 35.0%, and another 7.8% are those who support political parties but do not favor blue or green.

Cross-analysis shows that Zeng Minxue won 81.3% support among DPP supporters, 14.6% among KMT supporters, 53.0% among People's Party supporters, and 26.9% among people who were not partial to any political party. Xu Gongfan won 71.1% among KMT supporters, 27.5% among people's party, and only 16.5% among those who were not partial to any political party. If divided by the blue and green camps, Zeng Minxue received a high support of 81.7% from the pan-green, with 25.9% of the median voters leading Xu Gongfan's 16.5%; Xu Gongfan held 68.9% of the support from the pan-blue.

This poll was commissioned by the Chunyu Cultural and Educational Foundation and conducted by Shanshui Public Opinion Research Co., Ltd. The survey targets adults who are registered in Toufen City, Miaoli County and are over 20 years old. The interview date was from September 21st to September 25th. The sampling method was based on the sampling structure of residential telephone users in Toufen City, and random sampling was adopted through systematic sampling with two digits at the end. There are a total of 1,074 valid samples. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error is approximately plus or minus 2.99 percentage points, and is weighted by gender and age according to the demographic data of the Ministry of Home Affairs.