Shen Boyang, the Democratic Progressive Party's Taipei mayoral candidate, went to Yansan Night Market on the evening of the 22nd to sweep the streets to solicit votes and win public support. (Photo by reporter Luo Peide)
First published 00:14
Update time 06:27
Shen Boyang, the Taipei mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, has recently launched a series of air and land battles, setting off an "ocean current" whirlwind. The People's Association and polling expert Dai Lian released the latest poll on the 22nd. The difference in support between Jiang Wanan and Shen Boyang was only 1.2 percentage points. In this regard, senior media person Akio Yaita said that the "ocean current" has fermented. This poll tells us that there have been new changes worth noting in the Taipei mayoral election. The next step is to win over the middle voters and independent voters, which is the real tough battle.
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Akio Yaita posted on Facebook that recalling a few months ago, the gap between Jiang Wanan and Shen Boyang was once very large. Many people thought this was an election with no suspense at all. Now it has to be said that Shen Boyang's "ocean current" has fermented.
Akio Yaita pointed out that in the Internet age, once the election situation becomes popular and momentum builds, it is entirely possible for the election situation to change dramatically in a short period of time. For example, he took the election for the governor of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, which just ended last week. The 42-year-old newcomer Genta Kotse, who was not favored, finally defeated Danny Tamaki, who had been reelected for two terms, with more than 420,000 votes. No one knew the result until the last minute of the election. Therefore, whether Shen Boyang can continue to close the gap in Taipei City, which is generally considered to be "blue than green," will be the focus of observation next.
Akio Yaita pointed out again that Shen Boyang’s supporters cannot be blindly optimistic because the truly difficult stage of the election has just begun. He analyzed that Shen Boyang's support rate was relatively low in the past. The main reason was his lack of popularity. Even many Green Camp supporters did not know him well. After several months of publicity, campaigning and media exposure, he has gradually consolidated his base. Now his support has reached about 40%. But from another perspective, the DPP already has a considerable base in Taipei City. From 30% to 40%, it is still possible to achieve it by relying on the return of the basic market. But going from 40% to 50% is much more difficult.
Yaita Akio explained that he has entered a "deep water zone" and the real tough battle is to win over middle voters and independent voters. In addition, Jiang Wanan cannot be underestimated. Recently, Jiang has faced controversies on some issues and has been relatively on the defensive. However, there are still more than two months until the vote. The current mayor has the governance resources, administrative visibility, and complete organizational and mobilization capabilities. After the Chiang camp truly reorganizes its team and fully enters election mode, the situation may still change again.
Akio Yaita pointed out that what is particularly noteworthy is that in this poll by the People's Association, Jiang Wanan is still ahead by a large margin in terms of "Who is optimistic about being elected?" This means that although the "ocean current" has risen, it has not yet fully transformed into society's expectations of victory or defeat. In addition, as we get closer to the vote, the information war will probably become more intense. Shen Boyang has been studying China's information warfare and cognitive warfare for a long time. He is not only wanted by China, but also subject to various strong criticisms and slanders from China.
Yaita Akio said that after the election becomes intense, various edited videos, anonymous revelations, information that is difficult to distinguish between true and false, and negative information against Shen Boyang may appear in large quantities. In the face of these messages, everyone should first verify the source and evidence, and do not believe it easily, let alone rush to forward it.
Akio Yaita said that he had observed and participated in many elections in the past. When the election campaign entered the catching-up stage, the leader and the chaser faced completely different psychological pressures. For the chaser, as long as the gap continues to narrow, the morale of supporters will tend to become higher and higher; for the leader, as the advantage that was originally considered stable continues to shrink, the pressure will increase.
Akio Yaita believes that one poll cannot determine the outcome of the election, but at least today's poll tells us that there have been noteworthy new changes in the Taipei mayoral election, and the real election battle has only begun now.
