The result is a sensation. It will be by far the AfD's biggest electoral success to date - regardless of whether there is ultimately enough for an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, whether some agreement is reached with the BSW - or neither.
The ARD forecast is based on around 20,000 interviews in 180 polling stations in Saxony-Anhalt today. However, it is full of statistical uncertainties, because the greater the changes to a previous election, the more voter turnout or postal voting changes, the more the forecast can show changes compared to the final result.
Trembling with BSW
At BSW, the chances of entering the state parliament are 50:50. At the moment, the AfD on the one hand and the four parties that want to prevent an AfD government at all costs are about evenly matched on the other. Depending on whether the AfD ultimately comes out on top in this constellation or the combination of the CDU, the Left, the Greens and the SPD, it will also be decided whether and which government will be formed.
One thing is clear: the AfD achieved its highest election result to date, is ahead among young and older voters, among men and women. A young top candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, who was recognized by supporters, contributed to this.
Great dissatisfaction with Berlin
What is crucial for the result, however, is the massive weakness of the federal government, whose policies have determined the political debate and the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt for weeks. 59 percent of voters are of the opinion that the federal government deserves a lesson in this election. Only 30 percent are of the opinion that the planned social reforms in pensions and health should be implemented even in the face of resistance.
Among the federal party chairmen, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla are by far the most recognized, with 36 and 29 percent approval among those surveyed in Saxony-Anhalt. The two SPD chairmen Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas only receive 16 percent positive ratings. And the attractive figure in this election campaign is Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), who only has nine percent approval.
Disaster for the CDU
The result is a disaster for the CDU, its worst so far in Saxony-Anhalt with one of the biggest losses in state elections in recent history. When asked which of the three coalition partners was most responsible for the dissatisfaction with the federal government, 58 percent named the CDU. The greatest expectations were attached to their policies after the federal election, with supporters relying on lowering taxes and duties.
Instead of more, many people now have less money in their pockets, especially because of the high price increases. 70 percent of those surveyed expressed concern that they would no longer be able to pay their bills due to this development. This is a maximum value for this question.
Lots of poor people, lots of old people
This plays a particularly important role in Saxony-Anhalt, where social security is the most frequently cited motive for voting. Because it is the federal state with the lowest average net income and a particularly large number of older people who live on pensions or will soon do so.
