Berlin. With the gong in the election broadcasts after the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday evening at 6 p.m., something that had already become apparent: the blue AfD bar in the graphics climbs higher than ever before in a state or federal election. According to projections, the AfD achieved a record result of more than 44 percent - initially with no prospect of the sole government that was the goal in the election campaign. The AfD still speaks of a sensation.
“This is a historic result,” says AfD leader Alice Weidel in an initial reaction on ZDF. “We are going through the roof here, we will go through the roof in all of East Germany, including in the federal government.” She speaks of a very clear government mandate. Her co-boss Tino Chrupalla also sees it that way and says: "Ulrich Siegmund will be the new Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt." This is a “sensational result”.
The AfD's top candidate himself had made it clear before the election that he only wanted to govern alone and set the election target of "45 percent plus X" for this. On the evening of the election - the goal was only just missed - he spoke of extending a hand to forces that wanted to change the country, such as the AfD. “It doesn’t always have to be a whole parliamentary group, maybe it’s individual MPs,” he says on ntv.
Is there speculation about defectors from the CDU? Depending on the projection, there are only one to three MPs that the AfD would lack for a majority. During the election campaign, a CDU local politician from Saxony-Anhalt had already made headlines because he donated a total of 10,000 euros to the AfD and recommended voting for the party.
During the course of the evening, the minority government model also comes into play. Chrupalla is open to this. “You can also be tolerated with a minority government, that is also a possibility, without a coalition having been formed,” said the AfD leader when asked on ZDF. At the same time, Siegmund repeatedly emphasizes that he doesn't want to allow himself to be distorted.
Whatever the outcome, the AfD has already won in any case: its best result since the party was founded 13 years ago, and by far the strongest force ahead of the CDU. “We have halved the CDU, so it was a great evening,” he said to journalists on election evening in Magdeburg, referring to a statement made several years ago by CDU leader Friedrich Merz that the AfD could be halved.
If there is actually an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt, it would be a turning point for the Federal Republic and the beginning of a new era for the party. 13 years after its founding, it would have real creative power for the first time and could directly influence the police, schools, culture, personnel, funding policy and public administration. The country would become a laboratory and possible role model for other AfD state associations. In addition, in the long term a reservoir of people with government experience would be created that the party has so far lacked.
The downside of power: When it comes to government responsibility, all parties come up against the limits of their scope for action in the federal constitutional state with separation of powers. The Basic Law, the state constitution and the courts set the framework. In addition, there is the craft of government, with which the AfD has no experience yet. Leading AfD representatives had themselves built up the pressure to succeed: “We have exactly one shot free,” said party co-founder Alexander Gauland in “Zeit”.
The party has prepared arguments in the event of resistance and hurdles. Weidel had already predicted "expected government sabotage" and declared that the other parties would "then just throw a stick between the AfD's legs." If this catches on, it could strengthen support among potential voters.
But it could also happen to the AfD, like other parties, that voters turn away again because expectations are disappointed - with consequences for the ambitions of the federal AfD and Weidel, which is currently at 27 to 29 percent in the polls and is hoping for a breakthrough in the next federal election. Before the Saxony-Anhalt election, the AfD was also saying behind closed doors that it could be strategically more advantageous for the federal party not to have to govern in Magdeburg yet.
So far there is no public indication that the 35-year-old is also striving to move up the AfD nationwide. But just by being the first AfD prime minister - should he become one - he is likely to gain more weight in the party. In the long term, the question could arise internally as to whether more could be achieved nationwide with him and his appearance. The previous leadership duo Weidel and Chrupalla were confirmed in office for the next two years at the beginning of July. In 2028, a year before the next regular federal election, the AfD leadership will be reappointed on a rotating basis.
