The highest voter turnout in the history of the state of Saxony-Anhalt contributed significantly to the AfD's victory. According to post-election surveys, the AfD was able to score points particularly among non-voters in the 2025 state elections.
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At around 80 percent, voter turnout this year is significantly higher than the 60.3 percent in 2021. According to the analysis by the opinion research institute infratest dimap on behalf of ARD, the AfD won 170,000 voters who had stayed away from the election in 2021. In other words: Of the 291,000 new AfD voters, 58 percent were non-voters in the last election.
The AfD was also able to win from almost all other parties: 82,000 voters from the CDU went to the AfD, 19,000 from the FDP, 11,000 from the Left, 7,000 from the SPD and 2,000 from the Greens. According to the calculations, the AfD only had to give up 2,000 voters to the BSW.
The post-election survey conducted by the Elections Research Group on behalf of ZDF shows a similar picture. 42 percent of AfD voters, almost one in two, come from the camp of non-voters. 29 percent had already voted for AfD in the last election. So far, 15 percent have been with the CDU, 14 percent with the other parties.
The SPD and the Greens benefit from the anti-AfD effect
To a lesser extent, the CDU, Left, SPD and Greens benefited from the increased voter turnout. The Christian Democrats gain 32,000 previously non-voters, the Left Party and the SPD 16,000 each and the Greens 10,000 voters from this camp.
The Campact association had called for the election of the SPD and the Greens with a campaign worth millions, because the entry of several smaller parties into the state parliament makes it more difficult for the AfD to get an absolute majority of seats. This strategy seems to have worked. It is unclear whether the entry of the SPD and the Greens will be enough to prevent an AfD-led government.
Because at the same time the CDU lost to all other parties. According to the infratest-dimap analysis, 82,000 previous CDU voters chose the AfD, 17,000 for the Greens, 14,000 for the SPD, 11,000 for the BSW and 8,000 for the Left. Overall, the loss of 132,000 voters to other parties significantly exceeds the gain from the non-voter camp.
According to the analysis by Infratest dimap, the SPD gained 16,000 non-voters and 14,000 CDU voters, but also lost 7,000 voters to the AfD, 6,000 to the BSW and, to a lesser extent, to the Greens and the Left.
The Greens, in turn, benefited from 17,000 previous CDU voters and 10,000 non-voters, and to a lesser extent from SPD, FDP and Left voters. Surprisingly, the analysis also shows that the Greens lost around 2,000 voters to the AfD.
In addition to 16,000 non-voters, the Left also convinced 13,000 voters from the CDU, FDP and SPD. At the same time, it lost 13,000 voters to the BSW, 11,000 voters to the AfD and 4,000 voters to the Greens, so overall it worsened slightly compared to the election five years ago.
Representatives of the CDU, SPD or the Greens had often stated that high voter turnout was a means of defeating the AfD. However, the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt showed that the AfD was more successful in mobilizing non-voters.
Here you can find everything about the state elections
The results at a glance: forecast, projections and election results.
All constituency results at a glance: How did voting take place in the 41 constituencies between the Harz and Elbe?
A look at the demographics: The AfD won across all social classes and age groups
“The left is over”: The comment from WELT editor-in-chief Helge Fuhst.
