AfD wins elections in Saxony-Anhalt with 44% and puts Merz in check

It has been an overwhelming and unmitigated victory that shakes the political landscape of Germany and deals a terrible blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) swept this Sunday in the regional elections of Saxony-Anhalt with a record result of 44% of the votes, according to the projections of the public broadcaster ZDF on the percentages counted at 9:50 p.m. on Sunday.

At a very distant distance is the Christian Democrat CDU, Merz's formation, which fell to 17.5% as the second force, a debacle that affects the entire federal government coalition of conservatives and social democrats.

“We have made history in this country; we need fundamental political change in this country,” declared Ulrich Siegmund, candidate and regional leader of the AfD, exultantly before the microphones of German public television. “It is a wonderful result for us and it is a task to form a government; our hand is extended for a coalition or cooperation,” said the party's federal co-leader, Alice Weidel, elated.

The ultras remain at the gates of an absolute majority (they would lack between one and three seats), the formula to avoid the firewall (Brandmauer) with which the other parties have always excluded them from federal, regional and local government coalitions. The Parliament, located in the capital Magdeburg, has 83 seats; the absolute majority is therefore 42.

However, the entry into the chamber of the leftist and pro-Russian Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party – which has 5% this Sunday night, just the minimum necessary to have parliamentary representation – would prove to be a blessing for the far right.

Founder Wagenknecht has said several times lately that she sees no point in the firewall because it is “undemocratic” and that, in a possible election of Ulrich Siegmund in Parliament, the BSW would abstain in the third vote. In this third round, a simple majority is required, so Siegmund could be elected president with the votes of his party, without needing more. If this happens, Saxony-Anhalt would become the first German state to be governed by the far right since 1945.

The CDU – which has governed since 2002, in this legislature in coalition with social democrats and liberals – suffered a huge loss of almost 20 points compared to the previous elections in 2021, in which it had been the most voted formation with 37.1%. The Christian Democrat Sven Schulze, current president of Saxony-Anhalt, preferred not to have his co-religionist, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, nearby in the campaign, whose very low popularity throughout Germany he warned was harmful.

But such caution has been of little use to him. “As the CDU, we will face this result; it is a defeat for us,” said a saddened Schulze at his appearance on Sunday evening in Magdeburg. The tripartite coalition with which this sparsely populated eastern land (2.1 million inhabitants) has governed, with social democrats and liberals as partners, has not withstood the barrage.

The alternative scenario of an AfD government would be feasible without the presence of the BSW, but it has practically disappeared. The leftist Die Linke is the third force, with 8.9%. The social democratic SPD and the Greens were on par, both with 9%. The Liberals, with a paltry 2.4%, did not reach the minimum requirement and left the chamber. Die Linke had shown willingness to ratify a CDU regional president to prevent a far-right party from forming a government alone. But the AfD promises them happy.