AfD could become the strongest force in Saxony-Anhalt - formation of a government uncertain

Magdeburg. Several thousand people are expected to take part in demonstrations and rallies in Saxony-Anhalt on the election weekend. According to police information, a dozen events have been registered in the state capital Magdeburg and several pro-democracy rallies in Halle (Saale). The largest will take place this afternoon on Magdeburg Cathedral Square: an alliance of trade unions and civil society is expecting around 8,000 participants here. In addition, the AfD, which is well ahead of the CDU in the polls and is hoping for a sole government, is celebrating its official election campaign.

In the election of the new state parliament on Sunday, the AfD, which was only founded 13 years ago, is likely to be by far the strongest force. The question is whether their victory will be clear enough for a right-wing party to come to power in a German state for the first time since the Second World War.

The AfD with top candidate Ulrich Siegmund was well ahead in surveys in Saxony-Anhalt in recent months. Most recently, the party, which the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies as right-wing extremist, received 41 percent in a survey by the elections research group.

The CDU, which has been Prime Minister in Magdeburg for 24 years and is running with incumbent Sven Schulze, came in second place with 23 percent in the survey commissioned by ZDF. The Left remained the third strongest force with 11.5 percent. According to the numbers, the SPD (8.5 percent) and the Greens (6 percent) would also make it into parliament. The BSW, on the other hand, is likely to fail just above the five percent hurdle and the FDP will be kicked out of the state parliament. However, around a quarter of those surveyed were still unsure whether or who they would vote for.

If the AfD gets an absolute majority, it could govern alone. However, according to the latest surveys, it doesn't look like this will happen. In addition, top candidate Siegmund has stated that he only wants to be elected Prime Minister if he has a “stable (own) majority” in the state parliament. The second scenario, which according to the surveys is more likely, is a result in which the AfD would have to rely on alliance partners to win the election - which are unlikely to exist in the future state parliament.

It will certainly not be enough for a new edition of the previous coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP. For Schulze's desired scenario, a majority for the so-called center parties - such as the CDU, SPD and Greens - the chances are poor. What is most likely at the moment is that there is no absolute majority for the AfD and no majority beyond the AfD without the Left. It remains to be seen what forming a government would look like under these conditions. The current government would remain in office for the time being.

This time, the major election research institutes are not expecting a surprise like five years ago, when the AfD ended up weaker on election day than in previous surveys and the CDU was significantly stronger than expected. “We do not expect such a large mobilization effect in the last few days as in 2021,” said the head of the elections research group, Matthias Jung, to the German Press Agency. At that time, the comparatively popular Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU) was able to rally AfD opponents behind him. “This time the AfD opponents are divided more widely across different parties,” Jung pointed out. The heads of the opinion research institutes Infratest dimap and Insa made similar statements.

Before the last election in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU was only slightly ahead of the AfD in surveys, and in some cases even behind it. In the end, she won by more than 16 percentage points.