
AI-generated summary
The state elections in Saxony-Anhalt are approaching, with the AfD showing poll numbers that could enable participation in the government. The CDU is losing traditional voter potential to right-wing parties. At the same time, civil society alliances such as “Saxony-Anhalt cosmopolitan” are showing resistance to right-wing extremist tendencies.
Thousands of people want to make it clear today in Magdeburg how great their concern is (more on that here). The “Saxony-Anhalt cosmopolitan” alliance, in which more than 300 associations, clubs, unions, churches and initiatives are involved, is calling for a demonstration followed by a democracy festival. Activist Luisa Neubauer and publicist Carolin Emcke will appear as speakers (read all developments in the news blog).
Remarkable: CDU Prime Minister Sven Schulze also wants to be seen on Cathedral Square, as a guest "without his own political agenda," as my colleague Peter Maxwill hears from the state CDU headquarters. Participation is still a signal: Schulze is forgoing his own major election campaign, instead he is seeking proximity to a more left-wing anti-AfD alliance in the desperate defense fight for the state chancellery.
AfD federal leader Tino Chrupalla openly questions whether everything is done correctly with postal voting. He points to nursing homes as an example: He supposedly knows from conversations with carers and relatives of cases "where the pen was used, so to speak." He couldn't verify this, but he still considers it "uncontroversial." Top candidate Siegmund also warns that nothing from a “left or green corner” should be dictated in nursing homes. “You can’t prove that,” he says. "But we all know how that often works."
Siegmund has called on his supporters to volunteer as election observers in this “historic, fateful election” and to closely observe the counting of votes. The AfD man also refers to the campaign of the right-wing extremist association “One Percent,” which warns that “hard-won patriotic votes” should not disappear.
The goal is clear: to delegitimize democratic processes that have been practiced and proven for decades. The AfD is already writing the fairy tale of the stolen election if it doesn't turn out the way the party hopes.
More background information here: How the AfD is spreading the myth of vote theft even before the election
It would be a highly unusual step. In the Chancellor's Party, the first comment on a state election is usually not made by the Chancellor personally. But what is normal when right-wing extremists are preparing to govern a federal state?
The shocks from Saxony-Anhalt will also be felt in the center of power in Berlin. No matter how far the AfD ends up ahead of the CDU. The situation is already more than sad for Merz. The expected heavy losses for the Union on Sunday and in two weeks in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin will further darken it.
And yet: While there were still rumors circulating a few weeks ago about a possible, not entirely trivial change of chancellor (more on that here ), Merz doesn't seem to have to fear an uprising at the moment. That doesn't mean that resentment doesn't arise. Merz’s authority will continue to suffer. He once wanted to halve the AfD, and a CDU defeat in Saxony-Anhalt is also his defeat.
No matter how it turns out, according to the first projections, Merz probably won't speak out, if only to avoid fueling the drama of the evening himself. By the way, today the Chancellor is once again looking for votes - although not in Saxony-Anhalt, but in the local election campaign in Lower Saxony.
Our interactive question tool: What do you think about the Merz coalition and what about the AfD? And what does the majority think?
...are Birgit and Horst Lohmeyer. Once again. I paid tribute to the artist couple here about a year ago, but you can't do it often enough. The Lohmeyers live in Jamel in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a small village near Wismar that has been taken over by right-wing extremists for decades.
Birgit and Horst Lohmeyer don't want to accept this. In 2007 they organized the “Jamel rocks the forester” festival for the first time to take a stand against the neo-Nazis. Year after year it got bigger and the bands performing became more and more prominent (Die Toten Hosen, Herbert Grönemeyer, Die Ärzte, Fettes Brot, the Sportfreunde Stiller, Deichkind…). The 19th edition was actually supposed to start yesterday, but after hours of heavy rain the opening evening was canceled. Hopefully it can start today.
Read about the Lohmeyers' resistance in the SPIEGEL archive: Alone among Nazis
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The CDU will suffer significant losses in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
Likely · Within days
The AfD will try to cast doubt on the election results if they do not meet their expectations.
Very likely · Within days
According to the projections, Friedrich Merz will not make a public statement on election evening in order not to increase the drama.
Likely · Within hours
According to surveys, the AfD is expected to be the strongest force in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt with around 41 percent, while the CDU is in second place with 23 percent. An absolute majority for the AfD seems unlikely, and forming a government is difficult, as neither a clear AfD majority nor a stable coalition without the Left is foreseeable. Thousands are expected to demonstrate for democracy in Magdeburg and Halle.
Brandenburg's Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke advises the SPD to take a clear stance and focus on the hard-working middle in view of weak poll numbers. He emphasizes that the party must set its own priorities and show visible results, while warning of an absolute majority for the AfD ahead of the election in Saxony-Anhalt.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is on the verge of a historic electoral success and could even form the government, although Friedrich Merz once wanted to halve it. The hosts of The Politics Part discuss the causes of the rise of populists, the responsibility of the federal government and the consequences if the AfD becomes the strongest force but does not achieve a majority.

According to surveys, the AfD is expected to be the strongest force in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt with around 41 percent, but an absolute majority seems unlikely. The CDU is in second place with 23 percent, while the Left, SPD and Greens could make it into parliament. Forming a government is difficult because neither an AfD majority nor a center coalition is likely without the Left.
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