AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU suffers historic crash - Merz under pressure

Landmark victory for the AfD, crushing defeat for the CDU: The election in Saxony-Anhalt has the potential to shake up federal politics and get Chancellor Friedrich Merz into serious difficulties. His CDU has halved its 2021 election result and doesn't even reach 20 percent. The AfD doubles its result to more than 40.

It may be that for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic a party classified as right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution will come to power at the state level - even if this will probably only be possible with support. According to the latest projections, the BSW is tipping the scales.

Chancellor follows the drama at party headquarters

The Chancellor followed the drama for six hours in the evening with some representatives from the party leadership and the federal cabinet at the CDU headquarters in Berlin. When he left the party headquarters at 10:16 p.m., the final result was not yet there. But it is clear that his party has fallen even further than even the biggest pessimists expected.

As usual, he left the commentary that evening to his general secretary, Franziska Hoppermann, who has only been in office for a few weeks. “In any case, it is a very difficult result for us and also affects us as Christian Democrats,” is her first sentence. The head of the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei (CDU), speaks of a “breaking point”.

The word caesura is used most frequently

Caesura - that is the word that comes up most often this evening. What will happen next in Saxony-Anhalt is still unclear. What is certain, however, is that the search for those to blame for the election debacle will also lead to Berlin. Specifically: to the Chancellery. It can certainly be assumed that Merz will be held partly responsible for this from his own party.

Top candidate Schulze has repeatedly complained in recent weeks that his election campaign was being negatively overshadowed by federal politics. A meeting of the CDU Federal Presidium in Magdeburg that was actually planned shortly before the election was canceled and the Chancellor literally hid during his two visits during the election campaign. In Quedlinburg and Leuna there was no contact with the voters - only short statements for the journalists without the opportunity to ask questions.

Merz will probably have to answer for the federal party's share of responsibility for the AfD victory alone. Even before the summer break, no one came to his aid when discontent over his personnel castling broke out in the CDU. His authority is considered to have been compromised.

The Chancellor will argue that the center must now withstand the pressure from the far right. If it were to dismantle itself, the AfD would have achieved another goal. Perhaps Merz is betting that the cohesion of the coalition could even be strengthened.

Schulze is probably spared an unpleasant question

CDU top candidate Sven Schulze also openly admitted his party's failure. The question that will now arise for him is what will happen next with his own political career. Should the AfD attach itself to the government mandate, he may be spared another unpleasant question: How does his party feel about the Left?

According to the latest projections, the CDU, SPD and Greens would not have a majority even if they were tolerated by the Left. And the BSW categorically ruled out Schulze being elected prime minister even before the election. However, she also does not want to vote for the victorious AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund. It is currently completely unclear how a government will be formed.

Klingbeil and Bas can breathe a sigh of relief for now

In contrast to Merz, the chairmen of the coalition partner SPD, Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas - can - at least superficially - breathe a sigh of relief for now. For a long time, the Social Democrats had to fear that they would fail at the 5 percent hurdle. Now they have even made slight profits and achieved over 9 percent. “This is an important sign for us that the SPD is a force to be reckoned with,” said General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf on ARD.

He also immediately suggests that the SPD could now tighten the screws in the coalition: controversial issues that are important to people such as pensions, care and the distribution of funds could be reopened. This particularly applies to the planned abolition of the pension without deductions after 45 years of contributions, which has turned many employees against the federal government.

The election result is “a reason to think about politics here in Berlin, about the federal government’s reform course,” says SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil. “And be sure, we will do that too.”

However, the SPD has to be careful: if it damages its coalition partner too much, it will reflect poorly on the joint federal government, which already has a reputation for constantly arguing. This would then harm the SPD itself.

SPD now sees “completely different combat mission”

Things should now be quieter, at least in the debate about the SPD party chairmanship. He's not asking himself that question at all now, emphasized Klüssendorf in the Willy Brandt House. Bas himself predicted that the election result would tend to close the ranks of the SPD, “because we have a completely different combat mission here, namely to maintain this democracy.”

Even those in the party base who are critical of Klingbeil and Bas are now likely to concentrate on the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which is scheduled to take place in two weeks. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig has recently caught up and has a chance of finishing ahead of the AfD. She may even be able to hope for further growth after this election evening.

The elections in two weeks are also tough

How dangerous it will be for Merz in the fall also depends on the results of the two state elections on September 20th in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Berlin, the CDU is threatened with losing the office of governing mayor - possibly to the left. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - if things go really badly - it could fall below the ten percent mark to fourth place.

There, too, the question of cooperation with the Left could arise when forming a government beyond the AfD. The debate about changing the chancellor could then break out again - the outcome is open.

But another scenario is also possible: In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is spared a single-digit result as well as a difficult government formation - if it is enough for red-red-green. And the Berlin CDU top candidate Stefan Evers wins the election and becomes governing mayor. Such a scenario would ease the pressure on Merz.

End of black-red unlikely

In any case, one thing is initially considered unlikely for all future election results: a breakup of the black-red coalition. There is a simple reason for this: the AfD would probably emerge stronger from a new election - and forming a government would be even more difficult.