Dagens Nyheter50 minutes agoWorld2 min read

Anna-Lena Laurén: The Nord Stream trial revives old conflicts

Quick Look

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticizes the construction of Nord Stream 2 and believes that the problem was not the explosion but the construction itself.
A Ukrainian citizen is on trial in Hamburg on suspicion of sabotage, while Poland and Denmark have refused to cooperate with Germany in the investigation.
The trial comes at an unfortunate time for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as the far-right AFD could use it to undermine Germany's support for Ukraine.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipeline connecting Germany and Russia under the Baltic Sea. The project has been controversial due to concerns that it increases Europe's dependence on Russian energy and strengthens Moscow's geopolitical influence. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the line has never been put into operation, and several European countries have criticized Germany's past support for the project.

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- The problem with Nord Stream 2 was not that it blew up. The problem was that it was built, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X last week:

The fact that a German trial will now try a Ukrainian citizen on suspicion of sabotage has attracted criticism in Europe - above all in Germany's eastern neighbor Poland. Here, the two detained Ukrainians are regarded as heroes. (Serhij K is on trial in Hamburg, while the other man has been arrested in Croatia. Germany is requesting his extradition.)

Last year, Poland refused to extradite the second man suspected of sabotage to Germany. A Polish trial concluded that the German evidence against him was too weak. Furthermore, the judge held that the sabotage was not illegal, but an act of self-defense.

Eastern European countries have criticized the construction of the gas pipeline for years. The German government is accused of encouraging Putin in his warlike intentions, as it voluntarily made itself dependent on Russian gas.

It is not only Poland that has refused to cooperate with Germany. Denmark has also signaled reluctance. When Germany requested legal assistance to trace the route of the sailing boat Andromeda (Andromeda is the vessel suspected of having been used by the saboteurs), Denmark gave a cold hand. The Danes referred to the security of the state.

In Denmark, legal experts tell Danmarks radio that legal aid to Germany is usually a routine matter. In this case, Sweden and Poland cooperated with the German authorities, while Denmark refused.

Domestically, the trial comes at an unfortunate time for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His Christian Democratic Party has suffered election losses in several state elections in the autumn, while the radical right AFD has triumphed. AFD has long demanded that the gas pipeline between Germany and Russia be repaired. In addition, the party wants to stop the military support to Ukraine.

The trial is likely to be another instrument for the AFD when it comes to undermining German support for Ukraine. If Serhij K is convicted, AFD can argue that Germany should not assist a state whose citizens sabotage German infrastructure.

The Nord Stream trial starts: The ex-military intends to remain silent

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

If Serhij K is acquitted, Poland and other Eastern European countries will increase the pressure on Germany to reevaluate its energy and security policy towards Russia.
Likely · Within months
AFD will use the trial in its election campaign to criticize the government's support for Ukraine and demand the resumption of Nord Stream 2.
Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

What technical evidence does Germany have against the suspected Ukrainians?
Will Denmark change its attitude to legal aid in the future?
How will the outcome of the trial affect Germany's energy and security policy?