Americans are keeping their cars longer than ever before, with the average U.S. vehicle age rising to 12.8 years, according to Mobility Global. But some industry analysts and forecasters worry that highly complex software-defined vehicles will age more like smartphones.
These vehicles rely on sophisticated computers and software to control many functions that were once strictly mechanical or managed by simpler technology. They can also receive over-the-air software updates and are typically connected to the internet or communications networks, allowing automakers to remotely diagnose some problems, perform some fixes and add new features.
"A software-defined vehicle is really a vehicle which is no longer stale in time. It's a vehicle which continues to improve over time through over-the-air updates," said Rivian Chief Software Officer Wassym Bensaid. "What we like to say at Rivian is that the least capable Rivian you will ever get from us is on the day of your purchase, and then it will keep improving and getting better and better over time."
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The rise of these tech-heavy vehicles poses implications for the entire automotive world. A vehicle costs, on average, nearly $50,000 in the U.S. — a far bigger investment than a smartphone — but as they age some features could become unavailable because of obsolete hardware or discontinued product support. Ever-changing and often proprietary technologies raise questions about the long-term repairability of a vehicle.
"We honestly don't know how long these vehicles will last," said Sam Fiorani, senior vice president of vehicle forecasting for AutoForecastSolutions. "We're already seeing problems with hardware not being able to deal with new software."
Outdated technology
It's not the first time vehicle owners have faced technology losses.
In 2022, AT&T was the first telecommunications company to shut down its 3G wireless network, leaving millions of vehicles from a host of brands without access to features such as emergency response services and some navigation and infotainment options. The vehicles were still operable, just without perks that had been included when the owners purchased their vehicles.
Tesla , meanwhile, said in 2016 that every vehicle being produced had the hardware needed for full self-driving, or FSD, and CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed in 2019 that the company's then-new Hardware 3 computer would support the feature. But this April, Musk said Hardware 3 vehicles would need upgraded computers and cameras for "unsupervised" FSD. Tesla said qualifying customers could receive either a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
Rivian's Bensaid said the company tries to build enough hardware capability — what he calls "headroom" — to handle about seven to 10 years of software upgrades.
"There's a distinction between feature updates, which is a new additional functionality that you may get post-launch and post-purchase of the car, and then safety updates or security updates," he said. "Our commitment to our owners is safety and security updates will be supported by Rivian indefinitely. Your vehicle will stay fully functional, fully safe, whatever the duration of the ownership is."
Long-term concerns
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Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research for Telemetry, expects it will become common for features to be updated for a few years, then drop off as software outgrows hardware. But automakers will likely still provide a basic level of support, especially in the form of safety and security patches and bug fixes.
"From a product liability perspective and a safety perspective, they have an incentive to fix those problems as much as they possibly can," he said.
But maintaining software costs money, while hardware can break down and require replacement.
The loss of 3G services on those cars in 2022 raised the question of whether resale value would drop as a result. Fiorani said a larger share of customers are turning to used cars and that he worries about the long-term availability of affordable used vehicles.
Software-defined vehicles are "unlikely to fundamentally change the used car market," said Alex Yurchenko, vice president of data insights at J.D. Power. However, the market could split into two categories: vehicles with ongoing over-the-air support that retain value better, and those without. Manufacturer-certified used vehicle programs could become more important, as customers might prefer the reassurance, he said.
"Valuation remains a challenge," he said. "There are no widely accepted standards for assessing software-enabled features, and buyers may have concerns about [advanced driver-assistance system] calibration, feature availability, data privacy, and the long-term availability of subscriptions or connected services."
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Fiorani, who is a fan of classic cars, wonders what the rise of software-defined vehicles will mean for car culture, such as collectors, restorers and other enthusiasts.
"Going further out, when those vehicles become classics, how are they going to be maintained and how are they going to support aftermarket care?" he said.
Older cars can bring their own challenges: obscure parts and difficult-to-locate service manuals, to name a few. A vehicle that runs on a proprietary software platform presents a different set of challenges, and servicing it can require specialized skills, tools and access to vehicle data.
So-called right to repair laws that give consumers more access to fix their phones, cars and other technology have begun to spread throughout the U.S.
Bensaid said Rivian vehicles will soon provide owners more access to the vehicle to comply with these laws.
"One of the upcoming updates that we will have is actually to unblock what we call the service menu within the car and really allow our owners to perform more actions in line with the right to repair regulations," he said. "But then we want to go even above and beyond that and really allow that possibility for owners within the car to perform a full diagnostic check using our AI assistant, using the on-screen menus, and then perform some of the basic repairs, and then guide them through some of the certified third parties that we recommend."
Abuelsamid said companies that choose to no longer provide support for their products should be required to release the software to third parties that can maintain it.
"If we go down that path, we really ingrain right to repair as something that everyone has access to then, yeah, I'm more optimistic than I used to be," he said.
