Demonstrations in Madrid, a papal visit to France, and European fears of escalating Russian threats

Thousands of people demonstrated in Madrid on Saturday, protesting what they described as the failure of the Spanish government to deal with the massive influx of migrants from Morocco to the enclave of Ceuta in July, demanding early general elections.

During a march in the center of the Spanish capital, demonstrators chanted, waving their country's flags: "Ceuta is not for sale. Ceuta must be defended."

The atmosphere remains tense since more than 70,000 migrants entered Ceuta on July 30 and 31. Although most migrants returned hours after arriving in the Spanish enclave, thousands have remained in the enclave for weeks, draining the small city's resources and causing a political crisis for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

The right-wing “Spanish Civil Society” platform was the organizer of the demonstration, which was supported by the “People” Party (conservative right) and the “Vox” party (far-right).

The representative of the central government in the Madrid region estimated the number of participants at about 20,000, while organizers said that 180,000 people participated in the demonstration.

A statement published by the platform called for early general elections by November 15, the return of all immigrants who entered Ceuta to Morocco, and the trial of Sanchez on charges of committing “treason.”

“There is clear negligence,” Miguel Tellado, spokesman for the People’s Party, told reporters during the demonstration, adding that “the majority of Spaniards want elections to be held immediately,” noting that the scheduled date for the next general elections in Spain is August 2027.

The government intends to approve a decree during a Council of Ministers meeting, on Tuesday, to expedite the return of migrants from Ceuta to Morocco, according to what the daily newspaper El Pais reported on Saturday.

Commenting on this, the leader of the Vox party, Santiago Abascal, said: “No one can trust this government’s ability to take any step.”

In response to a question about the report, Abascal told reporters during his participation in the demonstration: “This government has been unable to do anything throughout this period,” according to what was reported by Agence France-Presse.

Today (Saturday) worshipers flocked to the Champs-Élysées Avenue to attend the huge mass that Pope Leo

Four hours before the start of the Mass, believers of all ages began to flock to the vicinity of the Arc de Triomphe, raising Vatican flags.

Federico Colombel (28 years old), a professor at an engineering college, arrived early in the morning, after participating on Friday in an evening of prayer held by the Pope at the “Stade de France” stadium in Saint-Denis, on the outskirts of Paris. He told Agence France-Presse: “That was wonderful... I hope it will be better in this Mass.”

Dozens of cars were converging on the streets leading to the Champs-Élysées to transport worshipers coming from the provinces, some of them carrying small chairs, in anticipation of waiting for long hours before the Pope’s arrival.

"We don't hear the voices of Catholics very often," said Sylvie Leclerc, a 51-year-old teacher, as she got off a bus from Siné-Maritime. "We will make noise, but to express love, peace and joy."

Believers sang religious hymns on a Parisian metro train as they headed to the Champs-Élysées, according to what a journalist at Agence France-Presse reported.

Mass in Macron's absence

In view of the size of the expected crowds, the organizers expanded the space allocated for the public to reach Place de l'Etoile and reach La Grande Armée Avenue.

About 10 metro stations will be closed on the occasion of the mass, which will be attended by many political figures and candidates for the presidential elections scheduled for the spring of 2027, including Marine Le Pen, Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe, while President Emmanuel Macron, who received the Pope on Friday upon his arrival at the airport, will be absent.

This is the first papal visit since the visit of Benedict

Leo

He said, “The history of the Church and humanity... was not written by those who give the impression of victory by imposing themselves and occupying space; Rather, they are those who make room for others, create peace mechanisms, inspire confidence, and encourage life.”

He called for "acknowledging the essential role of women in building a civilization based on love."

The possibilities of expanding the war in Europe are no longer discussed as a distant scenario or a theoretical assumption. Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the continent has entered a new security phase in which military confrontation is intertwined with cyberattacks, sabotage, airspace violations, disinformation campaigns, and pressure on infrastructure. What is worrying is that Europe is increasingly talking about preparing for a possible war with Russia at the end of the decade, even though the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) continues to assert that there are no indicators indicating an imminent attack.

The European scene thus carries two parallel messages: the first is that the danger of a broader confrontation has become more serious than at any time since the end of the Cold War, and the second is that a comprehensive war is not, at the moment, the expected scenario tomorrow or the day after. Current fears are mainly related to the accumulation of “hybrid war” events, and to the possibility that Moscow will use limited or hidden operations to test the extent of the alliance’s readiness to respond.

Evidence of this is increasing. Recent months have witnessed airspace-related incidents, including NATO fighters shooting down a Russian drone over Lithuania, and other incidents involving a Russian military plane, a Russian ship, and a Danish military helicopter. In Germany, an attempted drone attack at Leipzig Airport was linked to a person suspected of being linked to Russia. At the same time, European governments are talking about escalating sabotage, cyber attacks, and targeting of infrastructure.

*Field preparations

The matter is no longer limited to political warnings, as Germany is preparing for the possibility of receiving large numbers of injured people in hospitals, while Lithuania updated its civilian evacuation plans, and military maneuvers intensified in the Baltic Sea region and the Scandinavian countries. German and Swedish forces conducted joint exercises near the strategic island of Gotland, while NATO forces were conducting other exercises near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, located between Poland and Lithuania and about 360 kilometers away from the Russian border.

But the most controversial question is not only related to what is happening now, but rather to the date of war that is being said in Europe, both secretly and publicly: 2029-2030.

Why specifically the end of the contract?

The official European and Atlantic interpretation does not say that war will break out by 2030. Rather, the estimates talk about the period in which Russia could have rebuilt its military capabilities after the war in Ukraine, and re-equipped its forces sufficiently to threaten NATO's eastern flank. General Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the German Army (the highest military rank in Germany), explains that talking about a specific date is not a prophecy, but rather a time estimate of the Russian army’s potential ability to regain its strength. According to NATO estimates, by the end of the decade, Moscow could have accumulated the necessary resources and capabilities to launch a possible attack.

Here Europe's political dilemma appears. The more warnings of a possible war in 2029 or 2030 are repeated, the more the date itself becomes part of public consciousness. Most importantly, European officials are calling for an increase in defense spending, governments are rebuilding their military capabilities, and NATO is intensifying its training, while the idea of ​​preparing for a future war is turning into a permanent policy.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed this logic by saying that Europe is “safe now,” but it may not be so in three to five years, using this time frame to push the option of increasing defense spending. On the other hand, European officials spoke about the need to prepare to respond to “Russian aggression,” not about a European decision to go to war with Russia.

*Between prevention and treatment

From this, one of the most interesting aspects of the scene can be understood: Is Europe working to prevent war, or is it beginning to treat it as a potential outcome that must be prepared for?

The difference is not only linguistic. Military preparedness can be a deterrent tool, and its goal may be to convince the opponent that the cost of the attack will be high. But the intensity of the discourse around the war can, on the other hand, make a scenario that seemed unlikely years ago part of the daily political debate.

In this context, some European voices began calling at the same time for a return to dialogue with Moscow. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that it is time for the European Union to begin opening channels of communication with Russia, while European Council President Antonio Costa spoke of Europe's readiness for the possibility of holding negotiations regarding Ukraine. The European Union is discussing identifying a contact point to hold these talks.

This contradiction between military preparedness and the need for dialogue reflects the real European impasse. On the one hand, popular pressure to end the war and reduce the money spent on weapons is increasing. On the other hand, European governments believe that ending the war on conditions may allow Russia to quickly rebuild its military strength, while Europe itself is in a transitional phase to re-arm its armies.

As for Ukraine, it finds itself at the heart of this equation. Continued European military support means the continued flow of weapons to Kiev, but it also means the continuation of the war. Thus, military support becomes both a means to help Ukraine and a means to maintain military pressure on Russia, waiting for Europe to restore its defense capabilities.

*Psychological campaign?

But all these calculations do not mean that a war between Russia and NATO has become inevitable. On the contrary, NATO sources have confirmed that there is currently no imminent threat of attack. The alliance's official assessment was also unchanged, and the allies did not receive an official briefing on new intelligence indicating an imminent attack.

It was noteworthy that Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kstutis Podris said that the political statements could be a coordinated campaign to warn Moscow against testing NATO’s Article 5 of collective defense.

But at the same time, the numbers reflect the cause for concern. Between January and August 2026, 100 officially registered incidents of hybrid warfare were recorded in Europe, compared to 60 during the same period of the previous year, according to the Sahaidashny Security Center in Ukraine. A NATO source said that the real number may exceed 200 incidents if cyberattacks are excluded, which he said amounted to thousands of attacks per month against NATO institutions.

Perhaps what most reveals the extent of European anxiety is what French President Emmanuel Macron did on September 18, when he gathered party leaders and candidates for the upcoming presidential elections in the Elysee Palace for a secret security meeting. Participants received a briefing from senior intelligence officials on the evolving threat. Macron said that the nature of the Russian threat in Europe is changing, and that the sabotage that originally targeted government or military facilities may move towards targets that could cause civilian casualties.

Thus, Europe today appears to be stuck between two wars: an ongoing war in Ukraine, and a potential war being prepared for at the end of the decade. Between them is a wide area of ​​deterrence, sabotage, cyber warfare, maneuvers and warnings.

Talk about 2029 or 2030 may be just a planning framework for rebuilding European military capabilities, and it may be part of a deterrence strategy specifically aimed at preventing Moscow from thinking about testing NATO. But the danger lies in the fact that the preparation for war becomes a permanent state, and that the war scenario itself becomes more usual than the peace scenario.

In the end, current data do not say that Europe is inevitably going to war with Russia. But it says something more complicated: Europe has begun to act on the basis that it must be prepared for it, while at the same time it is still searching for a way that can prevent it from occurring, and the second option is the responsibility of both parties.