With the help of oil, fuels, soybeans and copper, the Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of US$7.74 billion in September, more than double the same month in 2025 (US$3.14 billion).
The performance was driven by the growth in exports, which increased 12.9% in the period, according to data released this Tuesday (6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic).
The surplus was the second best for the month, second only to September 2023 (US$9.18 billion).
Main numbers
• Surplus: US$7.74 billion (+146.4% compared to September 2025);
• Exports: US$34.42 billion (+12.9%);
• Imports: US$ 26.68 billion (-2.4%);
• Trade flow: US$61.09 billion (+8%).
The trade flow, the sum of exports and imports, reached US$61.09 billion, the highest value ever recorded for the months of September in the historical series and the second highest for all months, second only to June of this year (US$61.99 billion).
Exports grow
The increase in foreign sales was led by the extractive industry, followed by the manufacturing industry and agribusiness.
Exports by sector:
• Extractive industry: US$9.44 billion (+39.8% compared to September 2025);
• Manufacturing industry: US$ 17.67 billion (+5.3%);
• Agriculture: US$7 billion (+4.8%).
Featured products:
• Extractive industry: crude oil (+77.3% compared to September last year), copper ore (+74.2%);
• Processing industry: soybean meal (+47.7%), fuels (+39.1%);
• Agriculture: soybeans (+11.9%), unroasted coffee (+8.7%), rye and oats (from US$407 thousand to US$127.8 million, a percentage increase of 31.2 thousand, due to differences in shipping schedules).
In the case of oil, the growth in production and the 24.7% increase in average prices, following the worsening of the war in the Middle East, increased exports.
Sales destinations
Exports grew to most of Brazil's main markets, including the United States, despite trade tensions between the two countries. However, they fell for Asia and remained stable for South America.
Exports by region:
• Europe: US$8.3 billion (+51.9%)
• North America: US$5.2 billion (+30.6%)
• South America: US$4.2 billion (stable)
• Asia: US$ 17.4 billion (-2.5%)
Sales to the United States increased 31.9% in September, even amid the application of new tariffs on Brazilian products. However, they fall 6.5% year-to-date.
For the European Union, the growth can be explained by the agreement with Mercosur, which is boosting sales, mainly of food, to the bloc.
Imports advance
Brazilian purchases abroad fell slightly in September (-2.4%), mainly of capital goods and intermediate goods.
Imports by category:
• Capital goods: US$4.1 billion (-29.8%)
• Intermediate goods: US$ 14.9 billion (-2.4%)
• Consumer goods: US$4.3 billion (+11.5%)
• Fuels: US$3.4 billion (+41.2%, driven by the 58.2% increase in price)
In the case of capital goods, the economic slowdown caused by high interest rates is reducing investment by industry, the main buyer of machinery.
Accumulated from 2026
From January to September, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$62.4 billion.
During the period:
• Exports: US$ 264.65 billion (+10.4%)
• Imports: US$ 222.26 billion (+5%)
• Trade balance: US$62.4 billion (+34.8%)
Projections
Despite the growth in exports, the Mdic revised downwards its projection for 2026. The trade balance surplus estimate went from US$90 billion to US$84.4 billion. Even with the drop, the result would be the second best for a year since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. It would only lose to 2023 (US$ 98.8 billion).
The export forecast was reduced from US$394.4 billion to US$382.5 billion. The projection for imports increased from US$304.4 billion to US$298.1 billion.
Estimates are more optimistic than those of financial institutions. According to the Focus bulletin, a weekly survey of financial institutions released by the Central Bank, market analysts project a trade surplus of US$78.3 billion for this year.
