Analysts raised their forecasts for oil prices for the year 2026, and expected that the average Brent crude oil standard would reach about $90 per barrel, as the disruption of Gulf exports offset concerns about demand growth.
A poll conducted in September that included 30 economists and analysts, according to Reuters, expected that Brent crude would average $89.05 per barrel in 2026, and US crude would average $83.90 per barrel.
Expectations for average Brent prices ranged between $77.27 and $97.60.
Several analysts said the market has become increasingly convinced that a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely in the near term, putting the burden of absorbing a large part of the supply shortage on inventories.
This comes at a time when unrest is increasing in the Strait of Hormuz, which used to transport about 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies before the Iran war in late February.
The Arab Energy Fund announced that it recorded a net income of $125.4 million during the first half of 2026, while its total assets increased to $14 billion, with a growth of 16 percent on an annual basis.
According to the company's statement, the fund's operating profit reached $144.2 million, a growth of more than 16 percent on an annual basis, while total shareholders' equity rose to $3.8 billion.
The CEO of the Arab Energy Fund, Khaled Al-Ruweig, said that the fund’s performance during the first half “reflects the flexibility of the Arab Energy Fund and the strength of our diversified business model,” noting the continued focus on disciplined implementation of the strategy, risk management, and support of partners in the energy sector.
He added that the strong balance sheet and solid capital position provide a basis for continuing to mobilize capital and invest in the advanced energy system in the region.
The capital adequacy ratio reached 27.91 percent as of June 30, 2026, while the value of the outstanding sukuk and bonds amounted to about $6.9 billion at the end of the period.
The Fund's Chief Financial Officer, Vicky Bhatia, said that the first half results reflect strong management of the balance sheet and operational flexibility, noting the achievement of a net income of $125.4 million, in conjunction with the growth of the asset base to $14 billion and maintaining the capital adequacy ratio at 27.91 percent.
The value of corporate finance services assets amounted to $6.2 billion during the first half, while the investments and partnerships sector recorded assets worth $1.89 billion.
Treasury and capital markets assets amounted to $5.42 billion, while the sector continued to support the Fund’s financing, liquidity management and balance sheet activities.
During the first half of 2026, the Fund raised about $1.35 billion through sukuk and bond issuances, in addition to fixed-term financing worth $350 million.
The Fund enters the second half of the year, relying on its balance sheet and capital position, to continue investing capital and seizing opportunities that enhance energy security, contribute to developing infrastructure and supporting long-term economic growth in the region.
On Thursday, China begins imposing additional customs duties of 55 percent on beef imports from Brazil, after Brazilian shipments reached the maximum annual share in the Chinese market of 1.1 million tons, in a move that adds new pressure on the largest beef exporting country in the world.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday that Brazil has exhausted its annual quota allocated for exports to China, which means that any additional shipments, starting from October 1, will be subject to the additional tariffs that Beijing announced last January to protect the local livestock industry.
Additional fees apply to suppliers who exceed their quotas. For Brazil, 55 percent will be added to the basic import tariff of 12 percent, bringing the total duties on shipments exceeding the quota to 67 percent.
The move is of great importance for the Brazilian meat sector, given that China is the largest buyer of beef from the country, which makes any restrictions on access to the Chinese market have a direct impact on the volume of exports, prices and profitability of producers.
Brazil sought to find alternatives that would allow its exports to continue after the quota was exhausted. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said last week that Uruguay had allowed Brazil to use the surplus of its quota to export beef to China. But sources in the sector said that Beijing did not agree to allow Brazil to use the quota allocated to Uruguay, either during the current year or next.
She added that China is unlikely to accept such arrangements even if Brazil directly reaches agreements with other countries to use the untapped amounts of its quotas. Reuters reported in May that Beijing had rejected repeated attempts by Brazil to obtain approval to use other countries' quotas, while the Chinese Ministry of Commerce did not comment publicly on these requests.
Attention is now turning to Beijing's decision to extend the beef import quota system to 2027, which is expected to become clear before the end of the year, as this will have a major impact on the plans of Brazilian producers and exporters. The Brazilian Meat Export Industries Association (APEC) expects the country's total beef exports to decline by 10 percent during 2026 compared to the previous year, in light of Chinese restrictions and similar measures recently taken by the European Union.
The new duties put the Brazilian meat sector before the challenge of diversifying export markets and reducing its dependence on Chinese demand, at a time when Beijing is using quotas and fees to protect local producers from pressures resulting from the influx of imports.
