Bitcoin at $73,700, lowest since August: 3 morning figures after US inflation

A tenth too many. The American price index for October showed +0.4% over one month when economists expected +0.3%. Faced with this inflation that was more stubborn than expected, bitcoin did not wait for Wall Street to close to recover. Late Tuesday afternoon, it fell below $73,000, a first since August 20. This Wednesday at 6 a.m. (Paris time), it is barely above. Everything was decided at 2:30 p.m. and we wrote it yesterday morning.

The drop over 24 hours remains modest (-1.4%). Over one month, BTC lost 12% and it is trading almost 42% below its October 2025 record.

0.4% inflation and the Fed goes into hike mode (maybe double)

First number, the heaviest. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, increased by 0.3% when the consensus was forecasting 0.2%. And you won't find an annual figure this time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had not released a report in October 2025 because of the shutdown, so there is nothing to compare. The consensus of +3.9% over one year that we relayed yesterday will not have an official response before the November report.

The market especially compared with the words of Christopher Waller. On Monday, the Fed governor warned that he would favor an increase in December even with moderate inflation. According to him, a hot figure would justify 50 basis points. The number is hot. Traders are now giving 85% to the quarter point and 15% to the half point, according to CME FedWatch.

Bond rates did the rest. The 10-year US yield has crossed the 5% mark (5.015%, +15 basis points over the session) and the 2-year rate climbs to 4.76% (+21 basis points). Bitcoin has detached itself from stocks for a week. The Nasdaq had rebounded by 2.7% the day before and BTC had not followed. “For bitcoin, higher yields and a stronger dollar could accentuate recent selling pressure,” summarizes Lewis Huang of Bitget, cited by The Block.

Bitcoin ETF: BlackRock’s fund has been bleeding since October 30

The second number comes from demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $201 million on Monday according to Farside Investors, and BlackRock's fund alone returned $213 million. The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust raised 22 million and wrote off the balance. This is the seventh buyback session in a row for IBIT, or $1.66 billion gone since October 30. The balance sheet for the year went into the red, at -1.1 billion dollars, while these products had earned more than 20 billion in 2024 then in 2025. Tuesday's data falls in the morning.

The offer is not forthcoming. MARA, the first listed miner, sold 13,597 BTC for around $1.1 billion in six weeks and says it will continue. On the individual side, Santiment has 108,700 fewer non-empty addresses since October 16. When institutional buyers pull out and miners sell, no one makes the market. BRN analysts say it bluntly: bitcoin needs “real purchases, not a fluke”.

Bitcoin: the 200-day moving average as a last defense

Third number, the level to maintain. For Matt Mena of 21Shares, $73,000 corresponds to both the all-time high before the 2024 US election and the lows of April 2025. A sustained breakout would open the way to $69,000, near the top of the 2021 cycle. Bitget places its defense line at $73,200, on the 200-day moving average. Traders use this average price of the last 200 sessions as the boundary between uptrend and downtrend. BTC closed just above on Tuesday. On the upside, 21Shares expects a return to $78,000 first, then $85,000 at the end of the year if the market turns.

Bitcoin: a month of November going against the tide

Wincent's Paul Howard is less patient. Without monetary inflection, without regulatory clarity and without a return of institutional flows, he instead sees a progressive downward drift. The $100,000 is no longer part of its central storyline. The calendar doesn't help him change his mind. November is historically the best month for bitcoin, with an average gain of 34.4% and a median of 8.6% since 2010 according to The Block. This November started at $77,500. It shows -5% after ten days.