Unemployment in France: surprise drop to 8.2% in the third quarter according to INSEE

A pause, not yet a turn. INSEE published this Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. an unemployment rate according to the ILO of 8.2% of the active population in the third quarter of 2026. This is 0.1 point less than in the spring (8.3%), while the consensus of economists expected 8.4%.

The French labor market thus interrupts a series of seven consecutive quarterly increases. Over one year, the rate remains up 0.4 points, or 150,000 more unemployed. All in an economy whose GDP fell by 0.1% over the same quarter.

Key Points

In the spring, the unemployment rate reached its highest since the third quarter of 2020. INSEE now has 2.63 million unemployed, 47,000 fewer in three months.

15-24 year olds fall to 21.0%. Those aged 50 and over, on the other hand, rise to 5.6%, something never seen since the start of 2022.

The figure falls the day after the announcements on the minimum wage and during the Senate's examination of a 2027 budget built on close to zero growth.

Unemployment in Q3 2026: details by age and sex

The second quarter had set the scene. 2,677,000 unemployed, 62,000 more in three months, 261,000 more in one year. The rate for 15-24 year olds had climbed to 21.6%, that of 25-49 year olds to 7.5%, its highest since the start of 2021, and that of those aged 50 and over to 5.5%, unheard of since the start of 2022. Women were at 8.2%, men at 8.5%.

For the third quarter, INSEE counted 2,630,000 unemployed. The rate for 15-24 year olds fell by 0.5 point to 21.0% and that of 25-49 year olds fell by 0.2 point to 7.3%. Those aged 50 and over, on the other hand, rise to 5.6%, their highest level since the first quarter of 2022. Women fall to 7.8%, men rise to 8.6%.

Long-term unemployment, one year or more without work, remains at 2.1% of workers. This represents 680,000 people, or 82,000 more in one year. The unemployment halo, these people who wish to work without being counted as unemployed, concerns 1.9 million people.

INSEE also quantifies the effect of the law for full employment. RSA beneficiaries and young people registered with France Travail explain a little less than half of the increase in the rate since the end of 2024: 0.35 points out of 0.84. The full publication can be consulted on the INSEE website.

A fragile respite for the 2027 budget

The schedule offers a short respite to Matignon. On Monday, Sébastien Lecornu announced a minimum wage of 1,502 euros net on December 1 and extended exemptions on overtime and the fuel premium. On Tuesday, INSEE measured a first decline in unemployment after seven quarters of increase. The 2027 finance bill, unanimously rejected by deputies on November 4 and sent to the Senate, is nevertheless based on growth of 0% in 2026. It also targets a deficit of 5% of GDP which the OFCE already considers out of reach.

Each tenth of a point of additional unemployment weighs twice on the public accounts. Fewer contributions on one side, more allowances on the other. In its latest forecast, the OFCE anticipates a rate of 8.8% at the end of 2027, which would make this decline a simple pause.