
U.S.-regulated platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, now dominate 89% of the global market.
AI-generated summary
Predicted's State of Prediction Markets report analyzes prediction platform activity based on data from The Prediction and Artemis.
A record carried by American platforms. Prediction markets recorded $194.1 billion in notional volume in the third quarter of 2026, 75% higher than the previous quarter, according to Predicted's State of Prediction Markets report. Platforms regulated in the United States now account for nearly nine out of ten dollars exchanged. On the deposit side, Kalshi stands out in states that have not legalized sports betting.
The notional volume reached $194.1 billion, a record according to Predicted.
The share of regulated platforms in the United States increases from 69% to 89% in one quarter.
Kalshi and Polymarket together represent 91% of the total volume recorded.
States without legal sports betting accounted for 55% of card deposits on Kalshi in September, according to American Spend.
The report, which draws on data from The Prediction and Artemis, measures the notional value of contracts traded. This figure measures trading activity. The same contract can change hands several times during the quarter, with each exchange adding to the volume. User deposits are subject to separate measurement.
The progression is accompanied by a concentration of trade. Kalshi and Polymarket together capture 91% of the volume tracked by Predicted. In the United States, combined contracts, or parlays, now represent 44% of notional volume, ahead of contracts relating to a single sporting event, at 39%. A combined contract depends on several results at once, for example on the results of several matches.
The eleven US states without legal sports betting account for about a third of the country's adults. In September, however, they represented 55% of card deposits on Kalshi observed by American Spend.
18–24 year olds accounted for 30% of card deposits on the platform, approximately twice their share at DraftKings and FanDuel. Of the eight apps tracked by American Spend, Kalshi and Polymarket US together now capture 11% of card deposits, up from 3% in the first quarter of 2026. This progression provides a point of comparison with established sports betting apps.

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