An industrial threshold, a giant deadline and still high rates. Bitcoin is trading around $84,000 this Friday morning, after briefly crossing $87,000 at the start of the week. This level corresponds to the average cost of production estimated by JPMorgan, but the price still has to absorb the expiration of $15.6 billion in options and several American statistics.
Three signals therefore dominate the session: the profitability of miners, the unwinding of positions on Deribit and the reaction of the bond market to economic data. We take stock just before the weekend.
Bitcoin tests $85,000, break-even point for miners
The first signal of the day comes from the mining industry. According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin spent 280 days below its average cost of production, estimated around $85,000. This duration exceeds the 224 days observed in 2018 during the previous comparable episode.
However, this figure remains an estimate. The actual cost varies depending on the price of electricity, the efficiency of the machines, their financing and the difficulty of the network. It nevertheless provides a benchmark: when a bitcoin yields less than its production cost, the least competitive operators must sell more BTC, shut down their equipment or leave the market.
A sustainable return above $85,000 would therefore improve margins and reduce the risk of forced sales. Conversely, the failure of the price below this level maintains pressure on the most expensive miners.
The sector has already started its adjustment. According to JPMorgan, the network's hash rate has declined by about 19% since its peak in October, while difficulty has decreased by nearly 15%. Several listed groups are also redirecting part of their electrical capacity towards artificial intelligence, which offers more stable and often more profitable contracts per megawatt.
This conversion limits the growth of mining power and slows down that of the average production cost. The $85,000 thus represents less of a guaranteed floor than a zone of balance between the price, competition between miners and the income offered by the AI.
Bitcoin options: $15.6 billion facing the test of US rates
The second signal arrives at 10 a.m. Paris time. Around 182,000 Bitcoin options expire on Deribit, with a notional value close to $15.6 billion. This amount represents the value of the BTC covered by the contracts, and not the amount that will actually change hands.
The book includes 106,200 call options against 75,900 put options, representing a put-call ratio of 0.71. The positioning therefore leans towards the bullish side. The max pain level, at which the greatest number of contracts would expire worthless, however, sits at $76,000. This indicator has limited predictive power and is not an automatic target.
The immediate challenge comes mainly from the hedging of market makers. Those who have sold the options adjust their exposure by buying or selling bitcoin as the price moves. After expiration, some of these flows disappear or roll towards the next expiry, which can change the dynamics of the spot market.
Finally, the third signal will come from the United States. Durable goods orders and the final consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan will be released a few hours after the Deribit deadline. CME Bitcoin futures will also settle in the afternoon.
Equity markets remain hesitant and the US ten-year yield remains close to 5%. Robust economic data or high inflation expectations could keep pressure on Bitcoin. On the contrary, a bond easing would offer support to risky assets.
Bitcoin is therefore entering this session between two benchmarks: its production cost close to $85,000 and a significant deadline for derivative products. The real signal does not come from the settlement of the options alone, but from the ability of the price to sustainably regain the profitability threshold of the miners once the hedges expire. Volatility in sight?
