Bolsonaro leads the initial count but Lula maintains hope for the October 25 runoff

Everything was prepared this Sunday in a hotel in the center of Sao Paulo for the Brazilian leftist leader and current president, Lula da Silva, to celebrate the victory in the first round of the Brazilian elections. However, since the first data of the count appeared on television, the festive dynamics gave way to uncertainty. For much of the night, the far-right candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, had a clear advantage over Lula, even placing himself above the 50% that the Presidency gave him in the first round.

Finally, that insurmountable margin was reduced and the debacle that hovered over the Brazilian president's team gave way to the tranquility of having another opportunity. Bolsonaro had already warned this and this Sunday he showed that the polls were wrong, achieving a surprising victory that brings him closer to the Presidency. With 47.06% of support compared to Lula's 45.16%, Brazil is heading towards a runoff that will be held on October 25.

After knowing the results, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro – sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempted coup d'état in the last elections – acknowledged being "very happy" to have received the support of more than 56 million Brazilians. "I couldn't be more fulfilled since what I see is that Brazil wants a change," he said. Regarding his chances in the runoff, Bolsonaro recalled that "he almost failed to be elected president in the first round" and that he and his team are confident that he will maintain his advantage. "There are real possibilities that in three weeks Brazil will give a response and show that it wants a modern government, with fewer ministries, a government that respects democracy," he added.

Meanwhile, Lula's followers received the still president of Brazil with shouts of support. Lula acknowledged that the result is "unexpected", since "he was convinced that he was going to win the elections in the first round." Despite this, he quickly gave way to optimism in his speech, claiming to feel confident in a victory in the runoff, joking that "he is very good at face-to-face" and adding that starting this Monday "they will start the campaign." Lula has appealed to the more than 30 million Brazilians who did not go to vote this Sunday, as well as to the undecided and those who have voted for other candidates in this first round. "We are going to convince the Brazilian people that we must continue with the project," he added.

And the search for those votes is going to be Lula's great challenge. Just as the left has presented itself in these elections with a coalition led by Lula himself, the right has been fragmented, so the candidates who have stolen significant votes today were right or far-right options. That is why, although the transfers are never exact and anything can happen in the second round, everything seems to indicate that there is more room for improvement for Bolsonaro than for Lula. To turn the result around, the Brazilian president will depend on greater mobilization in the second round, something that cannot be ruled out that could occur after this defeat.

In addition to the Presidency, this Sunday there were also votes for another 1,600 public positions: the 27 state governors, the 513 deputies of Congress, two-thirds of the Senate and the regional legislative assemblies. Some votes in which the big winner of the night has also been Bolsonarism, which has not only maintained states as important as Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, but has also won in Congress and the Senate, expanding the right-wing benches. Although Flavio Bolsonaro's Liberal Party will have to negotiate with parliamentary partners, this victory would give him greater governability if he eventually becomes president in three weeks. Furthermore, in this legislature an important part of the Supreme Court will be renewed, and having the Presidency and the chambers of deputies and senators, it could appoint judges similar to their positions.

Lula vs Bolsonaro: two antagonistic candidates

Lula's electoral campaign has been marked by nostalgia, remembering his three terms in power and praising his achievements in this last one. Among them, the creation of 10 million formal jobs, reducing poverty and unemployment rates to historic lows; the expansion of social aid to mitigate the increase in costs such as fuel; and the growth of the economy. In his electoral program, Lula promises to continue this economic path and continue increasing funding for education, as well as combining environmental policy, industrialization and technological innovation, but without leaving aside the exploitation of Brazilian energy resources such as oil, critical minerals and rare earths.

Among the criticisms made of his management is the failure to lower the basic interest rate, one of the highest in the world, at 13.75%, which makes access to credit difficult and has caused an increase in the indebtedness of families who, according to official data, already dedicate about a third of their salaries to paying their debts. Furthermore, the opposition accuses him of having failed to find a way to put an end to organized crime, which is still very present in the country, something that has served as a banner in the Bolsonaro campaign.

Flavio Bolsonaro advocates a tough line against criminal organizations and relying on the United States, which has already declared some of them terrorist organizations, as is the case of the Red Command. In addition, he has promised to include Brazil in the 'Shield of the Americas', a group promoted by Trump with the rest of the continent's right-wing leaders. Under the slogan 'Brazil without fear', the far-right candidate defends reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 14 years for some crimes and following the prison model of El Salvador. It also proposes setting up an elite troop of the Armed Forces at the borders, chemical castration for rapists and toughening penalties, such as a minimum of eight years for cell phone theft.