Bond markets are calming down, but analysts are warning that yields in the USA and Japan will continue to rise

The situation on the bond markets calmed down somewhat on Friday, but analysts agree: In the future, the yields on long-term government bonds in the USA and Japan are likely to continue to rise in the wake of new interest rate increases by the central banks. Two connections to Tokyo and the USA clarify the consequences and connections.

"It was relatively clear that at some point this will turn around, at some point the bond markets will wake up and say: Wait a minute, we now want to see higher risks, higher inflation, but also higher returns. That's the time," says Martin Schulz, chief economist at Fujitsu in Tokyo. So far, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategy of growing the economy faster so that the world's most indebted industrial country can shoulder its debt service despite the rise in yields is working. The downside, however, is that such important structural reforms are being postponed.

The US government is more nervous because the rise in yields in the US is primarily a problem for them, describes Handelsblatt US correspondent Antonia Mannweiler. Not only is the national debt continuing to increase, the state has also refinanced itself on a shorter-term basis. Because the U.S. has to refinance more than a fifth of its total debt load every few months, higher yields hit it harder. “I do believe that at a certain point it becomes critical,” says Antonia. Many companies could also be caught off guard if they have to restructure their debts now. Nevertheless, she expects further interest rate increases from the US Federal Reserve. The US Treasury Department's interventions are currently fizzling out on the markets.