Brazilian election: Lula and Bolsonaro's son face a possible runoff election

Shortly before the Brazilian elections on Sunday, the left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro are close together in the polls. According to the surveys, both will probably not achieve the absolute majority necessary to win in the first round, which suggests that there will be a runoff between the two on October 25th.

Lula from the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) stands for the continuation of his government course with social programs, public investments and a stronger role for the state. The 80-year-old was head of state from 2003 to 2010 and is running for a fourth term in office.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest, advocates a reduction in state services and a tougher approach to crime. His father was sentenced by the Supreme Court to more than 27 years in prison for an attempted coup after his defeat in the last elections to Lula. Flávio presents himself as a more moderate version of his right-wing extremist father, but relies on his political base. Flávio is also being investigated for alleged money laundering and corruption allegations.

Concern about US influence

In addition to fighting crime, the election campaign was also about the independence of the Supreme Court and the relationship with the USA. Brazil's secret service Abin pointed out the risk of US influence in August. US President Donald Trump recently said he would follow the election “very closely.”

Flávio Bolsonaro repeatedly sought proximity to the USA during the election campaign. His brother, former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, was sentenced to prison because, according to the Supreme Court, he tried to persuade the US government to impose sanctions on Brazil in light of a case against his father. Lula, however, repeatedly asked Trump during the election campaign not to interfere in the Brazilian electoral process.

Latin America has moved significantly to the right in recent years due to elections in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. A victory by the left-wing politician Lula would keep Brazil alongside Mexico as a major left-wing bastion in the region, while a success by Flávio Bolsonaro would further promote the shift to the right on the continent.

159 million eligible voters

In Sunday's elections, around 159 million eligible voters are called upon to decide the political future of Latin America's largest country. A total of twelve candidates are running for president, but the remaining ten candidates are well behind the two leading candidates in the polls.

In addition to the president and vice president, two thirds of the 81 seats in the Senate and all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected. In addition, the governors of the 26 states and the federal district as well as the members of the state parliaments are elected.