BSW in the political fight for survival: Strategies before the election in Saxony-Anhalt

The BSW is waging a political battle for survival. Founded only two and a half years ago, a high in East German state parliaments was followed by failure to pass the five percent hurdle in the last federal election. And then, at the beginning of the year, the BSW parliamentary group in the Brandenburg state parliament disintegrated and with it the BSW's participation in the government in Potsdam.

"That means it only takes on political responsibility in Thuringia," says political scientist Benjamin Höhne from Chemnitz University of Technology: "And that's why it's important for the BSW to move into another federal state. There is strong hope that this could succeed in Saxony-Anhalt, and the numbers suggest that this is not entirely unrealistic."

On the plus side in Saxony-Anhalt: With more than eleven percent, the best state result in the last federal election - and therefore the third strongest force behind the AfD and CDU.

Today, however: In election polls, sometimes just in, sometimes below four percent. The party leadership emphasizes its own importance in a federal state where the AfD is heading for more than 40 percent. The AfD's firewall has failed, say party founder Sahra Wagenknecht and the two party leaders Amira Mohamed Ali and Fabio De Masi.

Even though the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt is classified as firmly right-wing extremist and the BSW separated itself from the left on the other side of the political spectrum, political scientist Höhne says: "There are actually many overlaps between the two parties. Both can be seen as anti-establishment parties that have little trust in the established institutions."

After the election in Saxony-Anhalt - and its own entry there - the BSW does not simply want to co-elect an AfD Prime Minister, but rather, if an absolute majority for the AfD were prevented, to implement the idea of ​​an expert government. Not a party politician, but a universally respected personality would lead the country and seek changing majorities in the state parliament.

Let's discuss this publicly, Wagenknecht suggested to AfD leader Alice Weidel at the end of June, who countered coolly: No need, we want to govern with an absolute majority.

And then, a week ago, the surprising offer from Thuringia from the local AfD leader Björn Höcke to Wagenknecht: "You talk a lot from the sidelines, if you will. Take action. Take on state political responsibility," he said in a two-minute video on X. "Become Prime Minister of the Free State of Thuringia. I'll give you my hand."

Which Wagenknecht refused. Background to Höcke's offer that Wagenknecht should become head of government in Thuringia: Prime Minister Mario Voigt of the CDU was stripped of his doctorate, which he is currently suing. AfD and the BSW leadership want Voigt to be voted out: He has lost credibility.

This deselection would also be the end of BSW's participation in the government in Thuringia. The majority of the BSW faction in the state parliament opposed their party leadership, the coalition continues, the three BSW ministers remain in office.

"Hello Mr. Höcke, you made me an offer a few days ago," replied Wagenknecht on social media this week and politely declined the premiership in Thuringia - quite openly because of the quarrels with his own faction. A special party conference of the BSW in Thuringia will deal with this. But more important: the upcoming election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Wagenknecht's counterproposal: an old, new idea. "Mr. Höcke, we're talking a lot about each other right now. Why don't we actually talk to each other?" Even if Höcke rejects this, like Alice Weidel, Sahra Wagenknecht has secured one thing at the start of the hot election campaign: media attention. This should help to stay in the conversation until September 6th in order to then bring the BSW over the five percent hurdle.