Federal presidential election: What Aigner's candidacy means

The CSU has long been committed to Ilse Aigner as the next Federal President. The SPD has assured its support. The official vote from the CDU is now missing.

Merz and Söder: Finding candidates didn't go smoothly between the two of them. (Archive image) Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Berlin. After the party leaders of the CSU and SPD and several CDU state leaders, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz has also made a decision: the Bavarian state parliament president Ilse Aigner is to become the first woman and the first CSU politician to head the state of the Federal Republic of Germany. The CDU leader wants to propose the 61-year-old to the party committees on Monday. This means that a preliminary decision has been made for the successor to Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, which the Federal Assembly will decide on on January 30th. There the coalition has a majority of around 50 votes.

What does that mean for you, the decision-makers, the coalition and the political center?

What's next for Ilse Aigner?

For the 61-year-old, being elected Federal President would be the crowning achievement of a long political career. Aigner was a member of the Bundestag and state parliament, a federal and state minister for many years and has been President of the Bavarian state parliament since 2018. These are all career moves that she wasn't born with and that she didn't work towards with a lust for power and elbows like many others.

She would assume the highest office of state at a time when it is perhaps more important than ever. The task of the non-partisan head of state is to bring people together and to stabilize them in crisis situations - for example when a government breaks up or a precarious majority situation arises in the Bundestag.

How is Merz doing now?

If the CDU officially nominates Aigner on Monday, many will say: But we could have done that earlier? CSU boss Söder had already brought her into play as a candidate in April. Merz had refrained from taking a position on this, pointing out that the coalition had agreed on a decision after the state elections in September.

But even after that, the Chancellor hesitated, and in October he quietly endured the fact that the CSU nominated Aigner as its candidate at its party conference with a storm of cheers. Many people - including some from his own party - now see him as a driven man who has lost control of the candidate search. Others see the problem with Söder, who put Merz under pressure by rushing ahead in public instead of amicably clarifying the P question in complete confidentiality.

What does the decision mean for the CDU women?

There would have been alternatives to Aigner from the CDU. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, Education Minister Karin Prien, former party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and the Hessian parliamentary group leader Ines Claus were in discussion. In contrast to the CSU, the CDU was unable to rally behind a CDU woman - or a man - in time.

For the women who were considered possible candidates for months, it is not pleasant to come away empty-handed. But it won't hurt your careers. Quite the opposite: after all, they were generally expected to hold office in the public debate.

What does Aigner’s freestyle mean for Söder?

For party leader Söder himself, Aigner's rise would mean two things. On the one hand, he would also lose a personal competitor at home in Bavaria. After all, Aigner was always considered a possible successor during Söder's weak phases, most recently after the Bavarian local elections in the spring. And even though it was never dangerous for Söder, precisely because Aigner is not a revolutionary, many suspected the party leader of having certain ulterior motives when he brought Aigner into conversation shortly after the local elections in question.

On the other hand, another chance for Söder to run for chancellor seems to be even further away than it already was. Because it is virtually impossible that the CSU would get two of the highest state offices.

What does the decision do to the coalition?

There is a lot to fix in the relationship between the two Union party leaders after the P question has been clarified. Trust has been lost on both sides. But Aigner is a good solution for the coalition as a whole. The SPD had shown sympathy for her early on and had recently aligned herself with her. If Merz had switched to a CDU candidate in the last few meters, the risk of a coalition collapse would have been great.

What does the decision mean for the “political center”?

Merz wants Aigner to be a “centre candidate”. This should be understood to mean that he also wants to get the Greens on board. Although they showed sympathy for the CSU politician, they did not give Merz a blank check for her.

What are the other factions doing?

It can be assumed that Aigner will introduce himself to the parliamentary groups in the Bundestag very soon. It is not clear whether this includes the AfD and the Left - but it is quite possible. In a post on Instagram in which she looks back on eight years as President of the State Parliament, Aigner herself writes: "My claim was and is to be #president for everyone - neutral in terms of party politics, but with a clear stance when it comes to protecting our #democracy and the dignity of our #constitution."

However, the AfD has already announced that it wants to put forward its own candidate, a man “from the middle of society,” as they say. The left has not yet made a final decision.