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Back德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜但未获绝对多数
德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜但未获绝对多数
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纽约时报中文网1 hour agoPolitics2 min readChinaView translation

德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获胜但未获绝对多数

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德国选择党(AfD)在萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中获得约44%选票,赢得39席,但未达绝对多数,无法单独组阁;尽管其胜利被视为对政治建制派的冲击,其他政党誓言不与其合作,而该党仍被国内情报机构列为疑似极端主义组织。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

德国选择党是一个被德国国内情报机构列为疑似极端主义的政党,其在萨克森-安哈尔特州的支持基础源于对经济衰退、移民政策和国家认同的不满;尽管其部分领导人曾淡化大屠杀并使用纳粹口号,但该党通过强调安全和移民议题吸引了传统中右翼选民。

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根据接近最终的结果,德国选择党在周日一场关键的州选举中占据主导地位,但未能拿下所需的绝对多数,因而不能成为自纳粹时代以来首个在德国部分地区执政的极右翼政党。

如果这些结果保持到最后,该党(德语缩写为AfD)仍可能在未来几周内在东部州萨克森-安哈尔特掌权,但这取决于各竞争政党之间的谈判——其他政党已誓言不会支持由德国选择党领导的政府。

萨克森-安哈尔特是一个相对较小的州,也是德国选择党在德国东部的权力核心地带。但此次选举结果在德国政治体系中引发了震动,该体系在二战后设计,旨在防止极端主义政党重新掌权。

“德国选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特的选举胜利与其说反映了其政治议程的吸引力,不如说更鲜明地揭示了政治建制派未能就该州的经济、政治和社会未来提出令人信服的愿景,”欧洲对外关系委员会柏林办事处负责人雅娜·普格列林说。

政治建制派一直将德国选择党视为异类。尽管如此,该党利用选民在广泛的经济和社会问题上的不满情绪在该州赢得了约44%的选票,并有望在议会83个席位中获得39席。

“我们创造了历史,我们正在夺回我们的国家,”该党州长候选人乌尔里希·西格蒙德周日对欢呼的人群说。“一切都从萨克森-安哈尔特这里开始。”

出口民调显示,德国选择党许多得票增长来自中右翼基督教民主联盟(基民盟)的票数减少——基民盟是总理弗里德里希·默茨所属的政党,同时也领导着该州的现任政府。在创纪录的投票率之下,德国选择党赢得了许多首次投票的德国人的支持。

德国国内情报机构已将德国选择党列为“疑似极端主义”组织,并将其萨克森-安哈尔特分支列为“极端主义”组织。该党一些领导人曾淡化大屠杀的严重性,并采用纳粹口号。还有一些领导人与俄罗斯关系密切。德国选择党还表示伊斯兰教与德国宪法不相容,并誓言大规模驱逐移民。

德国选择党否认极端主义指控,称这些指控带有政治动机。选民们对这些指控置之不理,许多人在周日接受民调时表示,他们认为比起比政治主流阵营,德国选择党在经济、安全和移民问题上提供了更好的答案。

63岁的托马斯·施罗德骑车来到位于马格德堡市中心的投票站,投票支持西格蒙德和德国选择党。“他给了我希望,所以他得到了我的选票,”身为供暖技术员的施罗德在谈到西格蒙德时说。他还说,他已经对其他政党失去了信任。“我几乎试过所有政党,结果得到了什么?”他说。

这一结果鼓舞了德国各地乃至全世界的德国选择党支持者。特朗普总统在自己的社交媒体平台Truth Social平台上发布了一张显示德国选择党领先的出口民调图片。

来自巴伐利亚的70岁老人埃利亚斯·贝克在州首府马格德堡中央火车站外俯身看手机,研究一张显示德国选择党在早期结果中接近获得绝对多数的图表。他说,他希望该党获胜,因为德国政府未能解决国内诸如非法移民等严重问题,却在国外花费了数亿美元。

“德国有各种问题,但所有的钱都去了乌克兰,”他说。

一些竞争党派似乎已经动员支持者反对德国选择党,柏林的一些领导人誓言,这只是针对德国选择党可能组阁所引发的反扑的开始。

德国副总理、中左翼社民党人拉尔斯·克林拜尔在电视上表示,这次选举是“一个转折点”,并补充说,“全德国有很多人对德国选择党的这一选举结果感到恐惧和担忧。”

担忧者之一是27岁的巴基斯坦人穆罕默德·哈桑。他周日晚在马格德堡说,自2023年抵达德国以来,他已尽一切努力融入德国。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 德国选择党将在未来几周内与基民盟或其他小党进行组阁谈判,但极大概率失败,导致重新选举或少数派政府形成。

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 德国联邦层面将加强对德国选择党的监管审查,可能导致其被正式认定为极端主义组织。

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • 其他政党是否会在压力下改变立场,接受德国选择党参与联合政府?
  • 德国选择党是否会在未来联合政府中实际掌权,还是仅作为支持党?
  • 该党的极端主义标签是否会被德国联邦法院进一步审查或撤销?
  • 俄罗斯对德国选择党的支持程度是否会被公开证据证实?

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This article was originally published by 纽约时报中文网.

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