China Meteorological Administration: It is expected that the overall temperature this winter will be relatively high and will form the strongest super El Niño event in history

China News Service, Beijing, September 29 (Reporter Chen Su) The reporter learned from the China Meteorological Administration on the 29th that due to the influence of El Niño, the temperature in China is expected to be generally high in winter (December 2026 to February 2027).

The China Meteorological Administration held a press conference that day. Chao Qingchen, director of the National Climate Center, introduced at the meeting that according to monitoring, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean entered an El Niño state in May 2026, and the sea temperature index continued to rise rapidly thereafter. It is predicted that the sea surface temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to fluctuate and rise. The peak of the sea temperature index is expected to occur around November, at 3.2°C to 3.5°C, which will be significantly higher than the historical maximum, forming the strongest super El Niño event in the history of monitoring records.

Since monitoring records began, there have been three previous super strong El Niño events, which occurred in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The current sea temperature monitoring index and its warming rate are significantly higher than the same period levels of the above three events.

Chao Qingchen said that the rapid development of El Niño has a significant impact on China’s climate during this year’s flood season. It is expected that this autumn (October to November), most of the central and eastern parts of China will have more precipitation, with most parts of Jiangnan and the eastern part of southwest China having 50% to 80% more precipitation. The risk of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, etc. will be high; Western China will generally have more autumn rain, showing a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north"; precipitation will be less than 20% to 50% in southwestern Inner Mongolia and the northeastern part of Northwest China, with higher risks of meteorological drought and forest and grassland fires. There are 1 to 2 typhoons that may land in China or affect China. The intensity is relatively strong. The coastal areas of South China and East China are at high risk of heavy rains, floods, strong winds and storm surges.

It is expected that in winter, China will have generally higher temperatures, slightly more frequent cold waves, and large fluctuations in temperature. There will be generally more precipitation in China, and it is necessary to focus on preventing periodic strong cold waves and the effects of low-temperature rain and snow in the south. It is expected that El Niño will rapidly weaken and end in the spring and summer of 2027, but its impact on China's climate will still be significant. Extreme weather and climate events will increase, temperatures will be significantly higher, and summer high-temperature heat waves will be stronger and wider in scope.