Meat consumption is more diversified and balanced
In recent months, the domestic meat market has diverged, breaking the long-standing linkage pattern of "pork and cattle rising and falling at the same time": the retail price of pork in supermarkets in many places has continued to fluctuate at low levels, while the wholesale price of beef has steadily increased. This opposite trend is not a simple market fluctuation, but a manifestation of the concentrated effect of multiple factors such as the restructuring of my country's livestock and poultry breeding cycle and the iteration of residents' consumption structure. It reflects the deep changes in the high-quality transformation of the meat industry.
Shifts in consumer preferences
On September 30, statistics from the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the national average price of pork was 21.07 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous week and 12.8% year-on-year. The national average price of beef was 77.12 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous week and 8.2% year-on-year. The price difference between pork and beef continues to widen, and market differentiation becomes more and more obvious.
This round of reverse fluctuations in pork and beef prices is rooted in the long-term and structural changes in residents' meat consumption structure. The public's preference for eating meat has shifted from "incremental satisfaction" to "quality improvement and diversification." Long Wenjin, associate professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, analyzed that the current trend of diversification of meat consumption among Chinese residents is highlighted. The proportion of pork consumption continues to fall, and the consumption share of high-quality meat such as beef has steadily increased. The growth in rural market consumption is particularly obvious, and the gap between urban and rural meat consumption continues to narrow.
From the perspective of consumption scenarios, the expansion of the catering market and the upgrading of residents' healthy eating concepts have become the dual driving forces for the growth of beef demand. In the short term, the peak catering season drives bulk purchases of beef and increases market demand; in the long term, residents' pursuit of the nutritional quality, taste and flavor of meat continues to drive the expansion of high-quality beef consumption. From 2018 to 2024, beef consumer prices showed a change of first rising and then falling. A moderate decline in prices will help release consumption potential and support the steady growth of beef demand.
In contrast, my country's pork consumption has entered a peak and decline channel, with a clear mid- to long-term downward trend. Long Wenjin believes that due to factors such as the popularity of alternative products such as poultry, it is difficult for my country's total pork consumption to expand again, and industrial development has officially shifted from scale expansion to a new stage of quality improvement and value addition. Data show that from 2023 to 2025, the per capita pork consumption of Chinese households dropped from 30.5 kilograms to 26.6 kilograms, a decrease of 12.8%. The trend of restructuring the meat consumption structure continues to deepen, and the traditional pattern of "pork dominates" is accelerating.
Supply cycles vary
Changes in the consumption structure are the long-term underlying logic. The direct cause of the price differentiation of pork and beef in 2026 is the completely different supply cycles and market fundamentals of the two: strong supply and weak demand drag down pig prices to run low, while tight supply supports the continued rise of cattle prices.
The pork market continues to be in a state of surplus. In recent years, my country's pig production capacity has been steadily released, breeding efficiency has continued to improve, and demand has continued to be weak, forming an unbalanced pattern of "increasing supply and shrinking demand." Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that domestic pork production will be 57.94 million tons in 2023; it will increase to 59.38 million tons in 2025; pork production in the first quarter of 2026 will be 16.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the market supply continues to be abundant. At the same time, terminal sales are sluggish, the entire industry chain from breeding, slaughtering to wholesale and retail is generally experiencing losses, and industry competition has further depressed pork prices. The interviewed pork wholesalers admitted that the industry as a whole has suffered losses this year. They purchased goods at high prices in the spring and shipped them at low prices now. The inverted price difference has led to loss-making operations. The core problem lies in excess pig production capacity.
The beef market shows a completely opposite supply and demand situation, with supply contraction becoming the core driver of price increases. Xiao Haifeng, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at China Agricultural University and the chief expert on mutton sheep monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, analyzed that beef prices have risen steadily since April this year, and have accelerated significantly since August. The core reason is that domestic production has declined and import growth has been limited. Data show that domestic beef production in the first half of the year was 3.39 million tons, down 1.0% year-on-year. Affected by policy controls on the import side, my country has implemented a three-year beef import quota management from this year. The tariff within the quota is 12%, and an additional 55% tariff is levied outside the quota. The comprehensive tax rate is as high as 67%. The annual import quota is 2.688 million tons. Currently, the quotas in many countries are about to be exhausted, and domestic and foreign supply have shrunk, driving cattle prices to continue to rise.
The current market differentiation has been transmitted to all links of the industrial chain. Terminal processing companies are under obvious pressure. Sun Weiguo, the relevant person in charge of Shanxi Pingyao Beef Group, said that the rising prices of corn, soybean meal and other feedstuffs this year have pushed up breeding costs. The company has not yet adjusted prices. It mainly hedges price risks through upstream direct procurement, dynamic reserves, independent expansion, etc., and will flexibly adjust its business strategies according to market fluctuations. The entire pork industry chain is suffering losses and sales are shrinking, and the industry is in the throes of structural optimization and capacity clearance.
Regarding the question of "whether low-priced pig prices drag down cattle prices" that is widely concerned in the market, many experts have clearly denied it. Xiao Haifeng confirmed through econometric model calculations that the consumption substitution effect between meat objectively exists, but the current supply and demand pattern of the pig and cattle markets is very different. Low pig prices will not change the upward trend of cattle prices, and the differentiated markets of the two are independent and sustainable.
Xu Guangjian, a professor at the School of Public Administration at Renmin University of China and vice president of the China Price Association, further summarized the causes of differentiation: First, the production capacity cycle is misaligned, with rapid expansion of pig production and overcapacity, and long beef cattle breeding cycles and low early prices leading to slow recovery of production capacity; second, differences in international influence, beef import quotas and tariff policies directly tighten external supply, and pork is less affected by international trade.
Optimize the control system
From a mid- to long-term development perspective, the transformation of my country's meat consumption structure is a foregone conclusion, which also puts forward higher requirements for precise regulation of the livestock and poultry industry and improvement of quality across the entire chain.
At present, my country has established a mature two-way pig control system to achieve the combination of ex-ante source control and ex-post terminal control. Xiao Haifeng introduced that my country's pig industry implements a dual mechanism of production capacity regulation and reserve regulation. The normal number of reproductive sows in the country is gradually reduced from about 41 million in 2021 to about 39 million in 2024 and about 37.5 million in 2026. The cumulative reduction is 3.5 million, a decrease of 8.5%, accurately adapting to the trend of consumption reduction.
Compared with the mature pig regulation system, the beef cattle industry still has shortcomings such as long cycles, slow production expansion, and weak regulation. Industry experts suggest that it is necessary to improve the support policy for the beef cattle industry in a targeted manner and speed up the introduction of the national subsidy policy for performance breeding cows to curb the decline of the stock; through financial support, forage subsidies and other measures, encourage entities to expand production and increase efficiency, and stabilize domestic supply. At the same time, relying on the existing import quota policy, we will maintain the stability of beef import scale and balance market supply and demand. For the pig industry, it is necessary to continue to implement the production capacity control plan, guide breeding entities to balance the slaughter, orderly clear inefficient production capacity, avoid vicious competition in the industry, and stabilize the profitability of the industry chain.
Industry insiders said that this round of price differentiation of pork and beef not only reflects the deep logic of the restructuring of my country's livestock and poultry breeding cycle and iteration of the consumption structure, but also puts forward higher requirements for the accuracy and effectiveness of industrial regulation policies. How to prevent excessive price fluctuations from causing excessive impact on the industrial chain and promote the quality improvement and value growth of the meat industry through policy tools such as production capacity regulation, reserve regulation, and import management while respecting market rules will be an important issue that requires continuous attention and efforts in the future.
