CDU falls by eight percentage points in North Rhine-Westphalia - AfD is catching up

A good six months before the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the black-green state government of Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) no longer has a majority, according to a new survey. The CDU is falling behind significantly, while the AfD is gaining ground.

In a survey by the opinion research institute Insa for “Bild”, the CDU came to 26 percent. That is eight percentage points less than in the previous Insa survey for the newspaper six months ago. The Greens improved by one point to 16 percent. Together, the two government parties would have 42 percent.

The survey results at a glance:

CDU: 26 percent (-8)

AfD: 21 percent (+4)

SPD: 18 percent (±0)

Greens: 16 percent (+1)

Left: 10 percent (+1)

FDP: 4 percent

According to the survey, the second strongest force would be the AfD with 21 percent, an increase of four points. The SPD remains unchanged at 18 percent. The Left gained one point to ten percent. The FDP would get four percent and would therefore miss out on entering the state parliament.

According to these figures, it would not be enough for the current black-green coalition to continue. On the other hand, an alliance of the CDU, SPD and Greens would have a mathematical majority, which together would amount to 60 percent. The CDU rules out collaboration with the AfD and the Left.

Insa boss Hermann Binkert also attributed the poor performance of the North Rhine-Westphalian CDU to “Bild” to Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “The unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also dragging Hendrik Wüst down,” said Binkert. At the same time, he emphasized: "No one can ignore the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia. Without and against them, no government would be possible at the moment." A new state parliament will be elected in North Rhine-Westphalia at the end of April.

The opinion research institute Insa surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online between October 6th and 13th. The maximum margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.