Since the beginning of the year, butter prices in Polish stores have dropped significantly. According to the analysis of UCE Research, Hiper-Com Poland and the Blix Group, the average retail price of a 200 g stick of butter from January to August decreased from PLN 6.89 to PLN 4.96, i.e. by as much as 28 percent. The largest reductions were recorded until May, and in the following months prices remained at a similar level: PLN 5.11 in June, PLN 4.93 in July, and PLN 4.96 in August. This meant a decline of as much as 36.5 percent year on year.
However, in September the trend reversed. According to a quick estimate of the report's authors, in the first two weeks of this month a stick of butter cost on average PLN 5.61 - 13.1 percent more than in August.
Experts: This is not a new wave of price increases yet
Is this the beginning of a new wave of price increases? Julita Pryzmont, an analyst from Hiper-Com Poland, cools down emotions.
The increase from PLN 4.96 in August to PLN 5.61 in the first two weeks of September is an important signal, but at this stage I would not treat it as the beginning of a new wave of increases. First of all, we compare a full month with just a two-week preliminary reading. The average price of butter is also strongly influenced by the intensity of promotion, which is why even a few large discount campaigns can significantly change the result of the entire month, the expert notes.
Dr. Krzysztof Łuczak from the Blix Group adds that further increases are possible, especially if retail chains limit promotions and wholesale butter prices go up. According to the National Center for Agricultural Support, at the turn of July and August, the sales of extra-packaged butter increased by 7.4%. more expensive than a month earlier, although it was still 42.1 percent higher. cheaper than a year earlier - says the expert.
What's next for butter prices?
Dr. Artur Fiks from WSB Merito University believes that the period of low butter prices is coming to an end. In his opinion, we should not expect sudden jumps, but rather a systematic increase in the following months, mainly due to the rising costs of production and transport.
The scale of increases will depend primarily on the prices of milk fat and milk, the supply situation in Poland and the European Union, and pre-Christmas demand. UCE Research analysts note that stores are slowly withdrawing from the fierce competition for promotions, although the "butter war" may return.
Julita Pryzmont predicts that in the coming months the average price of a 200 g stick of butter will fluctuate:
in October: PLN 5.20-5.70
in November: PLN 5.30-5.90
in December: PLN 5.40-6.10
At the end of the year, two opposing factors will be at work. On the one hand, pre-Christmas demand will increase, which will favor higher prices. But on the other hand, butter will be a product that can be easily used for promotional purposes, the expert points out.
Dr. Fiks predicts a slightly larger price increase: in September even PLN 6.50-8.50, in October PLN 6.80-9.00, and in November PLN 7.00-9.50.
Buying butter in stock could drive up prices
Specialists emphasize that many unpredictable factors, including the geopolitical situation, will influence butter prices in the coming months. They recommend caution when formulating forecasts so as not to cause panic and provoke mass purchases in stock, which could only drive up prices.
