Chinese President Xi Jinping embarks on diplomatic tour ahead of expected U.S. visit

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to make rare state visits to Egypt and, likely India, before his expected trip to the U.S. in late September.

Xi has "sharply curtailed foreign travel in recent years, so his busy upcoming travel schedule is a significant gauge of his priorities," Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, told CNBC in an email.

The Chinese leader this year has so far only ventured abroad once: a state visit in June to North Korea for the first time in seven years. Meanwhile. the world has come to China, with more than 20 leaders — including U.S. President Donald Trump — visiting Beijing in the first half of the year, pointed out U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The global stakes have only risen, with the Iran war, U.S.-China trade tensions and growing security risks from artificial intelligence. For Beijing, that's building the case for an evolution in its global role.

"It's time for China to probably take bigger responsibility, provide more global public goods," said Hai Zhao, a director of international political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-affiliated think tank.

"Because of China's deep integration into the global economy, China is an integral part of the solution," he said, whether it's supply chain security, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or cybersecurity.

Xi landed in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Sunday. The country is hosting the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit Monday and Tuesday. The annual event gathers the heads of Russia, India and other non-Western nations.

As part of the same trip, which runs through Thursday, Xi plans to make his first state visit to Egypt in a decade. China has built up its presence in the Suez Canal region with a bilateral economic and trade cooperation zone.

Xi is then expected to attend another non-Western leaders' summit, BRICS, which will be held in New Delhi from Sept. 12 to Sept.13. China has yet to confirm Xi's participation. It would be Xi's first visit to India since 2019 and after the deadly border clashes between the two countries in 2020.

Washington is watching

Experts said the U.S. will be monitoring developments at the SCO and BRICS summits, as it looks to improve ties with India and China but plans to get tougher on Russia to bring an end to Moscow's war with Ukraine.

Last year, as the U.S. imposed tariffs against Beijing and New Delhi, a clip of Xi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin laughing together at the SCO summit in Tianjin went viral.

The meeting drew the ire of Washington, with Trump claiming that it had "lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China."

A lot has changed since. In February this year, Trump announced that he would scale back the tariffs on India to 18% from 50%, and the two countries are in the process of negotiating a trade deal. Trump also made a landmark visit to China earlier this year, and Xi is expected to visit Washington in September, after the BRICS summit.

But India and China still face threats of up to 100% tariffs from Washington if the U.S. House passes the Graham bill, which punishes countries buying Russian oil. More than 50% of India's crude supplies originated from Russia in June and July, and were around 43% as of last week, according to Kpler data.

"Visible warmth" between Modi and Putin "could shape the President's [Trump] calculations over using potential new secondary tariff authorities," over India's purchases of Russian oil, Richard M. Rossow, senior advisor and chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at CSIS, told CNBC.

Meanwhile, experts expect New Delhi to use its presence at the SCO and BRICS summits to highlight the strength of its multi-polar alignment. India is much closer to the U.S. than Russia or China, but it will use the SCO and BRICS to show Washington that it has other partners, they said.

The Indian side, through these meetings, will convey to the U.S. that "there will be a price if you continue to remain uncertain," Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia practice head at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.

Elephant-dragon tango

After their SCO meeting, Xi and Modi are expected to meet in New Delhi for the BRICS summit.

The ties between the two neighbors have improved over the last year after Modi and meeting in Tianjin last year. Direct flights have resumed between India and China, a few old Silk Road trade routes have opened, and in March India relaxed rules around investment from Beijing.

Last week, the two sides also agreed to work on resolving their long-standing border disputes. Yet, the issues between the two sides are far from resolved. According to local media reports, Indian businessmen and executives are facing "significant difficulties" in getting Chinese visas.

"It is good to see India-China tensions confined to trade and visas!" Rossow told CNBC, adding that it is an improvement over the earlier military confrontation.

The two sides are trying to balance commercial linkages, experts said.

While India is easing investment rules for Chinese firms, it is also imposing some trade restrictions on goods in sectors where India is closer to self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, China is wary of technology transfers to India as it could undermine Beijing's role in key global supply chains.

India, for example, is already emerging as a key supplier for Apple smartphones after the company started diversifying its manufacturing base away from China. As per the Indian government, the country is already the world's second-largest mobile phone maker.

U.S.-China tech focus

Technology is rapidly emerging as a critical issue for the Trump-Xi summit in Washington, D.C., expected Sept. 24. China has not officially confirmed a visit. Senior officials from both sides met in Beijing last week — amid tough talk from the Trump administration over China's alleged role in financing Iran.

Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, last week also met with U.S. delegates in Beijing for a "Track 1.5" semi-official dialogue, led in part by the Rockefeller-founded nonprofit Asia Society. Its CEO Kevin Rudd said the meeting discussed the possibility of U.S.-China AI guardrails and bilateral collaboration on global cancer research.

If increasingly powerful large language models fall "into the wrong hands it will be very damaging both to the U.S. and China and to the global economy," Zhao said. He expects the two leaders could also set up a mechanism to guide AI development, while extending a truce on tariffs will be critical for bilateral stability.

But Teneo's Wildau was less optimistic, given "widespread conviction that AI development is a zero-sum game."