
AI-generated summary
The continuation of tensions in the energy supply chain fuels fears of inflation in Italy.
"The international situation remains very complicated. The continuation of tensions throughout the energy supply chain exacerbates fears of an acceleration of inflation. Our estimate for the October inflation rate is 4.7% (Nic). 5% is, unfortunately, in sight. Core inflation will also exceed 2%. It is not a destiny and everything remains possible. However, the space to avoid the aforementioned terrible results is narrowing with each passing day with a Brent between 100 and $110 a barrel." But in the meantime consumption and GDP are holding up. These are Confcom's forecasts.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
October inflation rate at 4.7%
Likely · Within months

In September 2026, the national consumer price index NIC recorded a cyclical variation of +0.7% and a trend of +4.2%, confirming the preliminary estimate.

The unobserved economy in Italy reached 218.2 billion euros in 2024, with an impact on GDP falling to 9.9%. However, Istat notes an increase in irregular work units, which have reached almost 3.3 million.

Istat reveals that in Italy families in absolute poverty have risen from 800 thousand in 2005 to 2.1 million in 2025, involving 5.4 million people. Analysis of the thresholds between North and South and comparison with Europe.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance has announced the eighth issue of the BTP Valore, characterized by the debut of a double placement from 19 to 23 October. Retail savers will be able to choose between the classic version with increasing quarterly coupons and the new 'Together' formula with single remuneration at maturity.

The crisis of the Risanamento real estate group worsens due to the 2020 losses and the slippage of the MSG Heartbeat fund. The board of directors calls an urgent meeting for October 28th to take the legal measures.

The Milan Stock Exchange continues to rise by 0.55%, supported by the banking sector and Cucinelli. Btp-Bund spread at 107 points with a yield of 4.47%. The defense is also highlighted.