Confimprese-Jakala: weak consumption and fragile climate of confidence in 2026

The consumption trend remains weak despite the slight improvement in expectations for the end of the year. Confirming the still fragile picture for trade are the half-yearly estimates of the Confimprese-Jakala Retailer Barometer, which, compared to forecasts for the last quarter of 2026 slightly revised upwards - from growth of +0.4% to +0.7% - does not foresee substantial turning points.

From the analysis of the Confimprese membership base (500 brands, over 100 thousand points of sale and 1.2 million employees), the first eight months of 2026 closed with a decline of 0.6% compared to the same period of 2025, while the month of August alone recorded a contraction of -2.3% in value compared to August 2025. Turnover was slightly down compared to 2025, across all the main compartments. The reduction in the average receipt (-0.4%) weighs heavily, especially in the catering and clothing-accessories sector, where the decrease in spending per single purchase was not compensated by the increase in the number of transactions.

"The numbers tell us that the problem today is not retail - comments Mario Resca, president of Confimprese -, but the climate of confidence in the country. What is missing is the serenity necessary for families to return to consuming with medium-term prospects. As long as uncertainty remains the main driver of purchasing choices, we will see a market that is floating, but which is struggling to express its full potential".

When it comes to product sectors, caution reigns everywhere. Other retail benefits from consumption considered more necessary and estimates the highest growth at +2.5%. However, the phase of weakness in catering continues, expected to decline by -1.4%, and clothing-accessories stands at +1.5%, showing signs of recovery, but without reaching the growth levels expected at the beginning of the year.

Among the various sales channels, the data for the month of August 2026 vs August 2025 indicate growth, albeit limited, only for shopping centres, expected to increase by 0.7%. A negative sign, however, for the high streets (-1.3%) and for local shops (-1.2%).