Permanent Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a state visit to America on Wednesday for the first time since 2015. A magnificent reception from Donald Trump will prolong the fragile truce, but will not solve a single problem between the two leading economic and military powers of the planet, experts are sure.
Trump promised to rein in China upon his return to the White House for a second term a year and a half ago and declared a trade war on it. Everything went wrong, the USA lost. Now China believes that America is fading, its trump cards are broken and the future belongs to China. You just need to wait and avoid direct confrontation in the process.
This is the only purpose of the meeting between 73-year-old Xi and 80-year-old Trump, experts in China and the United States say.
“The Chinese are more confident than ever. This is the feeling I have from traveling to China lately,” says American diplomat Daniel Kritenbrink, who oversaw China in the Barack Obama administration.
“It seems to me that they are confident that they have figured out Trump. It seems to me that they are confident that world events are unfolding in their favor. And it seems to me that with this confidence, Xi Jinping goes to Washington,” he said.
His assessments are confirmed by the Chinese themselves.
“For the most part, experts like me believe that the United States no longer has the ability to harm Chinese interests. There is a desire, but no opportunity,” says Da Wei, an employee at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
“I would say that this view has gained traction in the last year and a half since Trump declared the tariff Emancipation Day.”
We are talking about Trump’s main cudgel, with which he was going to subjugate the whole world. He waved it as soon as he returned to the White House for a second term.
Then Trump imposed tariffs on goods from all over the world, including an island inhabited only by penguins off the coast of Antarctica. But the main target was still China - the second largest economy after the United States, the world's factory and the leading exporter of goods in the world.
The Chinese were not afraid and responded. They restricted the export of rare earth metals, and Trump was forced to back down.
And this is Xi Jinping’s signature style, says American Ambassador Daniel Krietenbrink, who is personally acquainted with the Chinese leader. Xi will not stop, he is sure.
“Xi Jinping is perhaps the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, if not surpassing him. Xi can be underestimated, but only at your own peril,” Krietenbrink said.
“I had the opportunity to observe Xi Jinping at dozens of meetings, no less. He is decisive and calm. He behaves confidently, even a little self-confidently. And I think his self-confidence has only grown in recent years.”
And yet, even a self-confident Chinese leader cannot ignore reality, the ambassador says.
“Only America can ruin China’s life. "Xi Jinping has to face the facts: the US is still the world's leading power, the largest economy and a critical market for Chinese goods," he said.
What to expect from the summit
“The Chinese might wish for more, but for now they seem content to simply wait until Trump’s term expires,” writes Scott Kennedy, an expert at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Xi has no need for turbulence - in a year he will have to extend his powers for another five-year term at the autumn congress of the Communist Party. And Trump does not need an international conflict ahead of the November congressional elections.
“As with Trump, Xi’s political future largely depends on stability on the foreign policy front,” Kennedy said.
Therefore, from the summit in America we can expect an extension of the truce in the US trade war with China for another year, as well as limited and non-binding statements about the need to resolve conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as prevent the extinction of humanity as a result of the AI race between American and Chinese companies.
“When the leaders of the two most powerful countries meet, there is always a chance to achieve something significant. But you need desire on both sides, and so far there seems to be not enough of it on either side,” Kennedy writes.
“Therefore, if nothing terrible happens, China and the United States will call the summit a success. The rest of us should not be carried away by their optimism.”
In addition, everyone evaluates the success of the summit from their own perspective. The Chinese value form, while the Americans value content, says American diplomat Krietenbrink, who prepared Xi’s previous state visit in 2015.
The Americans are trying to extract concessions from the Chinese in areas that are important to them: trade, cybersecurity, Iran and Ukraine. For the Chinese, nothing is more important than two things: Taiwan and respect for their leader on the international stage, Krietenbrink says.
The top want it, the bottom not so much
The desire of Xi and Trump to avoid confrontation does not change the fact that competition between the two main powers of the planet is intensifying every day. China dominates industry and trade, the US is trying to get ahead in new technologies.
Both the Americans and the Chinese believe that the other side is, at the very least, a rival, and at worst, an enemy.
“The U.S. doesn't look kindly on China, that's the majority view in China,” says Da Wei of Beijing University. — It doesn’t matter: Trump, Republicans, Democrats. The United States took a course ten years ago to contain China.”
The only thing standing in the way of open conflict is diplomacy at the highest level, says Julian Gewirtz, a former China adviser in the Joe Biden administration.
“The summit will stabilize relations at the highest level, but will do nothing to moderate rivalry at lower levels,” he writes. “It’s paradoxical but true: the tougher the competition, the more often they have to meet at the highest level.”
Indeed, over the past year, Trump has met with Xi twice: in October in South Korea and in May in Beijing. Now Xi is traveling to Washington, and in November Trump will meet with him at the APEC forum in Shenzhen, after which they will see each other again in December in Miami at the G20 summit.
