
Survey interviewed 2,520 people between October 6th and 7th; margin of error of two percentage points
AI-generated summary
Datafolha survey carried out between October 6th and 7th with 2,520 people aged 16 or over across the country, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.
Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people aged 16 or over across the country, between the 6th and 7th of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey registration number at the Electoral Court is BR-0949/2026.
According to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Flávio Bolsonaro finished the 1st round with 47.03% of the votes, against 45.16% for Lula. The difference between them was around 2.2 million votes. See the complete calculation data.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will compete in the 2nd round of the 2026 elections
Very likely · Within weeks
Flávio Bolsonaro proposes increasing his mandate to up to five years through the PEC, while Lula states that he does not want to commit to the end of the 6x1 scale. The US announces the first public execution in 90 years. The TRE-RJ schedules the retotalization of votes for Saturday, which could declare Douglas Ruas elected governor. Alexandre Moraes determines the beginning of Eduardo Bolsonaro's sentence and orders the cancellation of his passports.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro proposes PEC to increase his own term of office to up to five years; President Lula states that he does not want to commit to the end of the 6x1 scale; US Secretary of Defense announces first public execution in 90 years; TRE-RJ schedules retotaling of votes for Saturday, which could declare Douglas Ruas elected governor of Rio de Janeiro; Minister Alexandre de Moraes determines the beginning of Eduardo Bolsonaro's sentence and orders the cancellation of his passports.

The president of TRE-RJ, Cláudio de Mello Tavares, ordered the suspension of electoral propaganda on radio and television until the result of the election for governor of Rio de Janeiro is officially defined, after the TSE annulled Anthony Garotinho's votes, which could lead to Douglas Ruas' victory in the first round. The retotalization will be carried out on Saturday at 3 pm, with a deadline for objections after the results are announced.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro proposes increasing his own term of office to up to five years through PEC; Lula plans to include vice-president Geraldo Alckmin on agendas after calls for 'more Alckmin'; TRE-RJ schedules retotaling of votes for Saturday, which could declare Douglas Ruas elected governor; government supporters claim to have the votes to end the 6x1 scale, while the opposition tries to postpone the vote; Moraes orders the beginning of Eduardo Bolsonaro's sentence and cancellation of passports; Fux asks for access to confidential STF investigations against Bolsonaro and allies.

Video manipulated with AI that shows Flávio Bolsonaro promising to cut pensions and 13th salary was identified as fake by deepfake detection tools. The candidate received 47.03% of the votes in the first round and will compete in the second round with Lula on October 25th.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election campaign plans to increase Geraldo Alckmin's participation in regional and joint interviews, while intensifying the digital strategy with video selfies on social media, which have already generated millions of views, aiming to improve performance on platforms for the second round of the 2026 general elections.